The two-year-long conflict in Manipur has caused significant loss of life and displacement but remains low on India’s national priority list. Political stalemate and inadequate security responses have prolonged the human tragedy and deepened ethnic divides.

Manipur Conflict: Two Years of Stalemate and Human Tragedy

• Prolonged Conflict and Human Cost: The Manipur conflict has lasted over two years, causing 250+ deaths and displacing thousands into sub-human relief camps.
• Neglected National Priority: Despite this devastation, the crisis has not received high national priority from the central government.
• Lack of Prime Ministerial Attention: Prime Minister has not visited Manipur, contrasting sharply with his urgent response to other national security incidents like the Pahalgam terror strike.

National Security Priorities and Political Optics

• Swift Response to Clear Security Threat: The India-Pakistan military stand-off received swift action due to its clear national security threat.
• Manipur Violence Underestimated as Security Threat: In contrast, Manipur’s violence is not perceived as an imminent national security threat despite efforts to frame it as such.
• Diminished External Insurgent Support: Historical support by adversaries to insurgent groups is distant and diminished, yet local security narratives focus heavily on border militants.

Security Narratives and Misinformation

• Political Blame Fuels Majoritarian Fears: Attempts by some political actors to blame violence on ‘lungi-clad’ Kuki militants from Myanmar have fueled majoritarian fears.
• Serious Threats from Valley-Based Insurgents Overlooked: More serious threats from valley-based insurgent groups (VBIGs) are largely ignored.
• Outsourcing Law Enforcement Undermines State Authority: Law and order enforcement is increasingly outsourced to insurgent-aligned groups, undermining state authority.

Obsolete Security Approaches

• Outdated Security Fix: New Delhi’s obsession with fencing the India-Myanmar border (costing ₹31,000 crore) is viewed as an outdated security fix.
• Alienation of Transborder Communities: The policy alienates transborder communities (Nagas, Mizos) and risks undermining the Act East Policy and neighbourhood relations.
• Criticism of National Security Policy: India’s national security policy is criticized for being driven by political optics rather than effective security infrastructure upgrades.

Ineffective Arms Control and Political Symbolism

• Unaccounted Arms and Ammunition: Over 6,000 arms and 500,000 rounds of ammunition remain unaccounted for despite publicized arms surrender drives.
• Political Theater of Arms Surrenders: Arms surrenders, like those by the militia Arambai Tenggol, are seen as political theater, lacking follow-up enforcement.
• Easy Weapon Availability Fuels Violence: The easy availability of weapons fuels ongoing ethnic tensions and violence.

Political Developments and Implications

• President’s Rule Imposed: The imposition of President’s Rule (February 2025) signaled a tough stance on violence amid political instability in Manipur.
• Symbolic Political Shift: This political shift conveys a message that violence will no longer be tolerated, but does not resolve deeper issues.

Looking Ahead: Need for Real Political Solutions

• Incremental Normalization: Incremental normalization may open doors for serious political dialogue with all stakeholders.
• Need for Genuine Solutions: Addressing the crisis requires accommodating legitimate demands, rebuilding trust in state institutions, and moving beyond political optics.
• Persistent Political Divisions: Rival parties’ symbolic commemorations on May 3 reflect persistent divisions.
• Path to Lasting Peace: Lasting peace depends on substantive policy changes transcending regime politics.

Conclusion

Resolving Manipur’s crisis demands urgent, sincere political engagement and policy reforms that build trust among communities and strengthen state institutions. Moving beyond superficial political optics is essential to achieve lasting peace and stability.

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