Context:
- On May 9, 2023, there were attacks on military installations and political unrest in Pakistan.
Scale of Violence in Pakistan:
- Activists from the youth wing of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and unidentified troublemakers protested against the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
- The general Headquarters of the Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi, a field office of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Faisalabad, and the residence of the Corps Commander in Lahore were targeted and damaged.
National Security Implications for India
- Political and Economic Meltdown:
- Border Instability: The potential for increased infiltration attempts and border tensions between India and Pakistan due to chaos and social unrest.
- For example: Rise in terrorist activities across the India-Pakistan border.
- Refugee Influx: The Possibility of a large number of refugees in India as a result of the economic and political turmoil in Pakistan, posing security and humanitarian challenges.
- For example: Similar situations in the past when many Kashmiri Pandits had to leave the Kashmir Valley in the late 1980s.
- Security of Pakistan’s Arsenal:
- Unauthorized access: Concerns about the safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and materials during a period of instability.
- Proliferation Risks: The Potential for unauthorized sharing of nuclear technology or materials which can impact regional and global security.
- Terrorist Organisations Exploiting Chaos:
- Terrorist Nexus: Active terrorist organizations in Pakistan, such as TTP, can take advantage of prevailing chaos and instability.
- For Example: Collaboration of TTP and Afghan Taliban
- Acquisition of WMD: Increased risk of terrorist organizations to acquire Weapons of Mass Destruction.
- Pakistan’s Nuclear Command and Control System:
- Robust Safeguards: Pakistan claims to have a strong system to ensure the safety of nuclear assets.
- Organizational Structure: Overview of key institutions within the nuclear command and control system.
Discord within the Pakistani Army:
- Leadership Fissures: Growing perception of divisions at the leadership level of the Pakistani army due to prolonged disagreements.
Policy Recommendations for India:
- Exercise Caution: Maintain a cautious approach and remain vigilant to protect the interests of India.
- Strengthen Border Security: Enhance Border security measures including surveillance, intelligence.
- Engage Diplomatically: Actively participate in diplomatic efforts to promote regional stability and peace building initiatives.
News Source: Times of India
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