Reimagining Delimitation

With the Census expected by October 2028, followed by a Delimitation Commission before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, concerns over loss of representation and the growing federal imbalance have intensified among the Southern States.

The Core Conflict

• Proportionality Principle: Delimitation is done based on population as per the latest Census, to ensure roughly equal population across constituencies under the principle of “one person, one vote.
• 84th Amendment Act, 2001: The 84th Constitutional Amendment froze Lok Sabha seat allocation until the first Census after 2026 to encourage population stabilisation.
• Penalty of Performance: The Southern States had invested in health and education and achieved lower population growth in line with the objective of population stabilisation.
  • The Census delay means that delimitation before the 2029 elections will be based on the latest population figures.
  • As a result, southern States are likely to lose relative political influence, while northern States with higher population growth will gain more seats after 2029.
• Fiscal Disadvantage: The Finance Commission assigns about 50% weight to population in tax devolution, thereby reducing the share of southern States in Union transfers due to their lower population growth.

Possible Solutions to Prevent Unfair Outcomes

• Expand Lok Sabha Using 2011 Census: Increase the total number of Lok Sabha seats while retaining current proportional shares based on the 2011 Census.
  • No State would lose seats; the House would expand to about 866 members, causing the least immediate disruption.
  • However, States with higher population growth would still gain more MPs, so regional imbalance would persist.
• Strengthen Federal Balance Through Rajya Sabha Parity: Increase Lok Sabha seats and introduce equal representation for all States in the Rajya Sabha, similar to the U.S. Senate model.
  • For example, 10 seats per State would raise the Rajya Sabha strength from 245 to about 290.
  • This would protect State interests, but is politically unlikely as it would dilute dominance in the Lok Sabha.
• Increase Vidhan Sabha Seats: Keep the Lok Sabha unchanged, but raise the number of seats in Vidhan Sabhas to equalise representatives per 1,000 population for each State.
  • This would improve democratic representation, especially in high-population States, within the federal structure.
• Performance-Linked Representation Formula: Increase the total number of Lok Sabha seats while revising the allocation formula: 60% of seats based on population, and 40% linked to population-control performance.
  • This would benefit States that have reduced population growth (using a downward-sloping scale). 

Degressive Proportionality: A European Model for Fair Representation

• Concept and Origin: The European Parliament follows the principle of degressive proportionality to allocate seats among its 27 member States. 
• Differential Weight of Votes: It ensures fair representation in legislative bodies such as the EU Parliament by giving larger countries more seats but fewer per person, and giving smaller countries fewer seats but more representation per person.
• Advantages: It balances population size with state equality to prevent total domination by large nations. 
  • It is a compromise between pure population proportionality (one person, one vote) and equal representation for all states.
  • It means a vote in a small country has more weight than in a large one.

Steps Taken by the Finance Commission (FC) to Ensure Fairness Between States

• Multiple Criteria: The Finance Commission has faced complaints of unfairness, as southern States contribute the most but receive less over time. To address this, the Finance Commission uses multiple criteria to allocate funds.
• Income Distance (Equity): The first criterion is income distance, with a 50% weight, ensuring that States with lower incomes receive higher transfers.
• Population Size (Expenditure Needs): The second criterion is population size, which reflects the States’ expenditure needs. 
  • The Finance Commissions have used either the 2011 Census population to reflect current needs or the 1971 population to reward population control efforts.
• Demographic Performance: The third criterion is demographic performance, which rewards States that have successfully reduced fertility rates.
• Tax Effort: The fourth criterion is tax effort, under which States that mobilise their own tax revenues effectively are rewarded, thereby encouraging responsible financial management.

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Conclusion

The Southern States must build consensus around the principle of degressive proportionality before the Delimitation Commission is constituted to safeguard federal fairness and long-term stability.

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