The recent visit of Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary to Bangladesh and the scheduled visit of its Foreign Minister in April 2025 signal a strategic shift in South Asian diplomacy.

Relations Between Bangladesh and Pakistan

• Recent Developments: Sheikh Hasina’s overthrow in August 2024 has led to a renewed friendship between Bangladesh and Pakistan. Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch visited Bangladesh this week, further fostering this diplomatic relationship.
• Economic Initiatives: Key developments in their relationship include the introduction of direct shipping routes, the promotion of enhanced trade, a relaxed visa regime, and the proposed visit of Pakistan’s Foreign Minister to Bangladesh in April 2025.

Impact on India-Bangladesh Relations

• India Bangladesh Ties: Under Sheikh Hasina and Narendra Modi, India-Bangladesh relations flourished due to key pillars like:
  • Trade: Bilateral trade surged to $12 billion in 2024, making India Bangladesh’s second-largest export partner.
  • Connectivity-linked infrastructure: Integrated Check Posts (ICPs), transit rights, trade corridors, and maritime cooperation treaties facilitated smoother trade.
  • Cultural exchange: Cultural and people-to-people exchanges.
• Recent Strain: Revocation of transhipment facility by India for Bangladesh’s exports to third countries. Bangladesh’s ban on selected Indian products has also impacted bilateral ties.
• Geopolitical Challenges: Bangladesh’s renewed friendship with Pakistan and the increasing Chinese influence pose strategic challenges for India
  • China’s growing presence in South Asia and the region’s proximity to India’s borders.
• Caution: India must remain cautious about Pakistan-Bangladesh relations and the shifting geopolitical dynamics.
• Vigilance at the Border: The Myanmar conflict near the India-Bangladesh border complicates the regional situation, requiring strict vigilance from India.

Bangladesh’s Trade Challenges

• Impact of US Tariffs on Bangladesh: Bangladesh faces higher tariffs on its exports to the US compared to India
  • US tariffs: 37% on Bangladesh’s exports, compared to 26% on India’s. This makes Bangladesh’s ready-made garments less competitive in the global market.
• Graduation from LDC Status: Bangladesh is set to graduate from its Least Developed Country (LDC) status in 2026. 
  • This will lead to higher tariffs, stricter international standards, and fewer export incentives. Increased competition with India in the ready-made garments sector is expected.

India-Bangladesh Connectivity Initiatives

• Border Haats: Despite challenges, India-Bangladesh connectivity initiatives remain vital. Border Haats have played a key role in enhancing trust between communities, improving local livelihoods, and promoting women’s empowerment in border areas.
• Continued Cooperation: India must not relinquish its leadership in South Asia, even amid the growing Pakistan-Bangladesh cooperation and China’s influence.

Conclusion

India must continue to drive the political and economic narrative in South Asia, ensuring stability and cooperation despite the shifting dynamics. India’s role remains crucial in maintaining peace and regional cooperation amidst geopolitical challenges with Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh.

DOWNLOAD PDF