There are potential geopolitical consequences of a stronger US under a Trump-led administration, with a special focus on how the US might exploit divisions between Russia and China to undermine their strategic alliance.
Russia-China relations
- Alliance Without Limits: The formation of an “alliance without limits” between Moscow and Beijing was officially announced by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in February 2022, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- Cooperation in Different Sectors: The alliance underscores their commitment to strategic cooperation across security, economic, and political domains, without restrictions on their collaboration.
- Foundations of the Alliance: Strategic ties between Russia and China have been strengthening since the early 2000s, but the 2022 declaration elevated the relationship to new heights.
- Friendship After 2008 Crisis: Both leaders share a belief in the decline of the US-led world order, particularly since the 2008 global financial crisis.
- Xi Jinping’ Comment: Xi stated that China and Russia are aiming for changes like those the world hasn’t seen in 100 years.
- Meaning: He was referring to a change in the world order, which has been dominated by the US, and would now be dominated by China and Russia.
- Focus on the Global South: The growing global interest in BRICS and the perceived rise of the Global South seemed to further confirm the shift away from American dominance.
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Historical Context: Russia and China’s Shifting Alliances
- Historically, Russia and China have oscillated between alignment and betrayal.
- In the 1950s, they were ideological allies against American imperialism, but by the 1970s, both sought separate deals with the US, accusing each other of betrayal.
- By the late 1990s, they rekindled their partnership to counter Washington.
- This history of shifting alliances raises the question: will the current Moscow-Beijing alliance remain intact, or will one leader betray the other?
Mitrabhedam
- The ancient text “Mitrabhedam” from the Panchatantra explores the complexities of friendship, trust, and betrayal in the relationships between rulers.
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Challenges to the Narrative of American Decline
- Resilience of US Economy: The US economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience, outpacing both the European Union and China in growth and technological innovation.
- The US continues to attract significant investment, while Europe grapples with structural challenges such as declining population, high unemployment, and slower economic growth.
- Meanwhile, China’s economy is slowing due to demographic changes, a lack of low-cost labor, rising debt, and trade tensions following Trump’s rise to power.
- Future of US Economy: Projections for 2024 estimate the US GDP at $29 trillion, compared to China’s $19 trillion and the Eurozone’s $16 trillion, with Russia’s economy lagging far behind at $2.5 trillion.
| The Eurozone, officially called the euro area, refers to the group of 20 out of 27 EU member countries that use the euro (€) as their official currency. |
- US Stronger Position in the Global Order: The economic strength of the United States suggests that its position in the global order may not be as precarious as previously thought.
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Expected US Foreign Policy Under Donald Trump
- Donald Trump’s Return: Trump’s administration is expected to ease down tensions between US and Russia and have better relations.
- His administration is expected to take a vigorous stance in challenging Sino-Russian ambitions for a post-Western world order.
- Challenge to Sino-Russian Goals: Trump himself has frequently discussed the idea of “un-uniting” Russia and China, pointing to the natural contradictions between the two neighboring powers.
- His nominee for national security adviser, Mike Waltz, has proposed strategies to achieve this goal.
- Regional Reassessments: Many Republicans believe that the US should focus on reassessing its priorities in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, as the Moscow-Beijing alliance, while presenting a challenge, has not produced the expected results from their coordinated efforts.
- National Interest Focus: The US is expected to prioritize national interests over alliance-based strategies.
- Russia-Ukraine Settlement: President Putin may be more open to a reasonable settlement with the West if proposed by Trump, recognizing the necessity of reassessing his position.
- Within the Republican foreign policy establishment, there are growing calls to focus on countering China in Asia rather than expending valuable military resources in Ukraine.
- Divide and Conquer Strategy: A stronger US under Trump may aim to exploit divisions between Russia and China by pursuing separate agreements with each nation.
- Skeptics doubt the success of this strategy due to deepening economic ties and shared geopolitical interests between Moscow and Beijing.
- Despite anti-US rhetoric, both Putin and Xi may prioritize bilateral relations with Washington over maintaining a unified stance against the West.
| Challenges faced by Russia, China and Iran
Russia
- Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, now approaching its third year, has proved far more costly than initially anticipated.
- Despite some recent territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, Russia has suffered significant losses in personnel and resources, and its political and economic influence in Europe has diminished.
- Given these setbacks, it seems increasingly unrealistic to expect Russia to emerge stronger from the conflict.
Iran
- In the Middle East, Iran, a key partner in the Sino-Russian alliance, is facing significant setbacks. Iranian proxies in Gaza and Lebanon have suffered losses, and Bashar al-Assad has sought refuge in Moscow.
- Israel has effectively countered Iran’s “axis of resistance,” especially after signing a deal with Lebanon.
- Syrian Bashar al-Assad who retained power with the help of Iran and Russia has also fled the country.
- This evolving dynamic weakens the anti-American front in the region, further complicating the Sino-Russian strategy.
China’s Setbacks in Asia: The US Response
- The United States has revitalized old alliances, formed new partnerships, and created institutions such as the Quad and AUKUS to counter China’s growing influence.
- As Trump prepares to intensify economic pressures on China, Beijing’s slowing economy and internal challenges will force it to reconsider its approach to its neighbors and Washington.
- Engaging in bilateral negotiations with the US has always been a part of China’s strategy, and it may now take on a new urgency.
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Role of India
- India’s Benefit: India would welcome a reconciliation between Moscow and Washington on European security issues that would facilitate a “multipolar Asia.”
- However, India has no interest in a US-China deal that could lead to a “bipolar Asia.”
- Balancing Relations: India’s position is a reflection of its broader foreign policy strategy, which seeks to maintain strategic autonomy while balancing relations with major global powers.
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Conclusion
As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, the future of the Russia-China alliance remains uncertain. Whether Trump can successfully divide the alliance between Moscow and Beijing will depend on his ability to navigate the complex web of economic and strategic interests that bind these two countries together.
December 12, 2024
