War and peace: On India and a Russia-Ukraine peace initiative

Just days after his visit to Kyiv, the Prime Minister’s telephonic conversations with the U.S. President Joseph Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have sparked speculation that New Delhi might be gearing up to play a role in peacemaking efforts regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, critics remain sceptical about India’s effectiveness, arguing that India is not well-placed to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

Critics’ View on India’s Potential Role in Peacemaking

Though the Prime Minister’s recent and upcoming engagements—including his trip to the UN in September to meet U.S. and European leaders and another visit to Russia in October for the BRICS summit—have fueled hopes of an Indian initiative in the peace process, critics argue that India’s high hopes for peacemaking may be unrealistic. The following factors could hinder its ability to broker a ceasefire:

• India’s Neutral Stance: Critics argue that establishing peace between Russia and Ukraine is a formidable challenge. India has maintained a neutral stance towards the war, with the Prime Minister declaring that India is “on the side of peace alone” rather than aligning with either Ukraine or Russia. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar previously described the conflict as “Europe’s war”.
• Reluctance to Engage in Peace Initiatives: India even distanced itself from the Swiss peace summit, reflecting its reluctance to engage in peace initiatives without direct dialogue between the warring parties.
• Perceptions of Bias: India’s historical ties with Russia, including military and energy dependencies, have led to perceptions of bias. For India to be a credible mediator, it would need to present a truly neutral stance.
• Persistent Conflict and the Challenge of Peace: The continued escalations in the conflict—such as Russia’s deadly attacks on Ukraine just before PM Modi’s Moscow visit in July, and Ukraine’s operations into Russia’s Kursk Oblast before his visit to Kyiv last week. This demonstrates the deep-seated power struggles and the continuity of war. Peace can only be achieved when the warring states themselves are willing to negotiate, which does not appear to be the case at present.

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Small Glimmers of Hope

• Despite these challenges, there are small glimmers of hope in recent peace initiatives.
  • Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI): The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) was a UN-brokered agreement involving Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the United Nations to facilitate Ukraine’s export of food and fertiliser through the Black Sea amid the invasion.
  • IAEA Monitoring of Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been active in monitoring and ensuring the safety of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, which has been under Russian control and facing risks of nuclear leakage due to the war. The IAEA’s efforts to station experts and inspect the site highlight a commitment to maintaining nuclear safety amidst the conflict.
  • Recent Prisoner Exchange: The recent exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine illustrates the potential for incremental progress even amid a broader conflict.

A long way ahead

India’s potential role in peacemaking would require it to articulate clear principles for a ceasefire and lasting peace. The conflicting proposals from Russia and Ukraine further complicate the prospects: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insists on a full Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territory, while Russian President Vladimir Putin demands Ukrainian forces withdraw from occupied regions and for Kyiv to abandon any NATO aspirations. These divergent demands highlight the significant obstacles to peace negotiations.  Despite the formidable challenges and entrenched positions on both sides, India’s ongoing efforts to engage in the peace process demonstrate its commitment to global diplomacy. Even if the immediate prospects for a ceasefire seem limited, sustained efforts and small-scale initiatives could pave the way for eventual reconciliation and peace.

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