All eyes are on Bangladesh after Sheikh Hasina tendered resignation from the post of the Prime Minister and fled to India.

Background and Context

• Sheikh Hasina’s tenure:
  • Longest-serving Prime Minister of Bangladesh (2009-2024).
  • Came to power in 2009 through free and fair elections.
  • Subsequently presided over controversial polls in 2014, 2018, and 2024.
• Economic achievements:
  • Bangladesh transformed from one of the world’s poorest nations to a fast- growing economy.
  • Per capita income tripled in a decade.
  • Over 25 million people lifted out of poverty in 20 years.
  • Ambitious infrastructure projects like $2.9 billion Padma Bridge.
• Deteriorating democracy:
  • Increasing reliance on hard power to maintain control.
  • Digital Security Act (2018) used to silence critics.
  • Suppression of press freedom and civil rights.
  • Opposition parties boycotting elections.

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Immediate Causes of the Crisis

• Quota system controversy:
  • Reintroduction of 30% quota in government jobs for descendants of freedom fighters, religious minorities, and underrepresented districts.
  • Supreme Court order to reduce quota to 7%.
  • Student protests against the quota system.
• Government response:
  • Heavy-handed repression of protests by ruling Awami League.
  • Use of police and paramilitary forces against students.
  • Imposition of strict curfew with “shoot-on-sight” order.
• Escalation of protests:
  • Movement broadened in scope and participation.
  • Opposition and Islamist elements joined the protests.
  • Death toll estimated between 300 and 500.

Economic Factors

• Foreign exchange shortage:
  • Difficulty in importing goods, including those from India.
  • Payment delays for Indian exporters.
• Rising inflation:
  • Reduced domestic demand.
  • Lower consumption of local and imported products.
• COVID-19 impact:
  • Severe hit to Bangladesh’s economy.
  • Exacerbated existing economic challenges.
• Ukraine conflict effects:
  • Spike in prices of essential commodities (fuel, food, fertilizers).
  • Difficult balance of payments situation.

Political Implications

• Sheikh Hasina’s resignation:
  • Abrupt end to her 15-year reign.
  • Flight from the country, reminiscent of authoritarian leaders.
• Military intervention:
  • Army’s assumption of power under the guise of an interim government.
  • Return of military rule after three decades.
• Opposition involvement:
  • Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami joining protests.
  • Potential for increased Islamist influence.

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Regional and International Implications

• Impact on India:
  • Setback for India’s regional strategy.
  • Sheikh Hasina was an ally against China and Islamist radicalism.
  • Potential disruption in bilateral trade.
• Trade concerns:
  • India’s exports to Bangladesh facing challenges.
  • Disruptions at border crossings.
  • Potential long-term implications for economic relations.
• Geopolitical considerations:
  • Possibility of foreign interference in the protests.
  • Concerns about interests “inimical to Bangladesh’s interests and India’s security interests”.

Lessons and Future Outlook

• Balance between economic progress and democratic values:
  • Economic achievements alone cannot sustain a leader’s popularity.
  • Importance of maintaining civil liberties and democratic institutions.
• Need for inclusive growth:
  • Address growing economic inequality.
  • Tackle corruption and cronyism.
• Political reforms:
  • Restore faith in democratic institutions.
  • Create space for peaceful dissent and opposition.
• Regional stability:
  • Importance of Bangladesh’s stability for South Asian region.
  • Need for proactive measures and regional cooperation.

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Conclusion

Sheikh Hasina’s tenure highlights the need for balancing economic growth with democratic values. Ensuring civil liberties and political reforms is crucial for Bangladesh’s stability and future progress.

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