Global mediation is witnessing a power shift — from Western dominance to emerging middle powers and regional actors. 

Changing Landscape of Mediation

• Shift from Western to Regional Leadership: In the 20th century, major peace negotiations were held in Western cities like Geneva (USSR’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, 1980s) and Oslo (Israel-Palestine Accords, 1993).
  • Today, peace efforts have shifted to the Middle East, with Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE mediating in conflicts such as Gaza, Afghanistan-Pakistan, and Russia-Ukraine.
  • This reflects a new geography of diplomacy, where regional powers are filling the vacuum left by a divided West.

The Irrelevance of the United Nations

• Declining Role in Conflict Resolution: The UN, once central to peace processes like the Afghan settlement (1980s) and Oslo Accords, has become largely irrelevant in contemporary crises.
  • It plays no decisive role in ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, or Afghanistan.
• Security Council Paralysis: The veto politics within the Security Council — between Russia and China on one side and the US, UK, and France on the other — has crippled collective action.
  • This internal division has pushed mediation into regional and bilateral hands, eroding the UN’s legitimacy as a global peacemaker.

Motivations and Leverage in Modern Mediation

• Prestige as a Diplomatic Currency: Mediation today is pursued as a symbol of prestige and influence.
  • Countries see successful peace-brokering as a means to assert global relevance and strengthen diplomatic standing.
• The Role of Leverage: Effective mediation depends on leverage — the ability to influence or pressure the warring sides.
  • Economic power, strategic alliances, and political credibility determine how much leverage a nation wields.

Emerging Global Mediators

• Turkey: Turkey works closely with Russia in Syria while also supplying drones to Ukraine, balancing both sides strategically.
  • It played a crucial role in facilitating the Black Sea Grain Initiative and aspires to lead the Muslim world through active diplomacy.
• Saudi Arabia: Leveraging its economic wealth and religious influence, Saudi Arabia has hosted major summits like the Jeddah Summit on Ukraine and Riyadh meetings involving the US and Russia.
• Qatar: Despite its small size, Qatar has used its immense wealth and connections — notably with the Taliban — to facilitate the US-Taliban negotiations.
• United Arab Emirates (UAE): The UAE operates as a quiet peacemaker, mediating between Armenia and Azerbaijan, facilitating Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchanges, and reportedly helping revive the India-Pakistan LoC ceasefire (2021).
• China: China achieved a diplomatic milestone by mediating reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a feat the US could not accomplish.
  • It aims to reshape global governance through initiatives like the International Organization for Mediation (IOM) in Hong Kong, presenting itself as an alternative to the Western order and a global peacemaker.

India’s Position and Potential

• Historical Legacy in Mediation: India has a long-standing record in peace diplomacy, from leading the Neutral Nations Repatriation Commission (Korean War, 1950) to mediating crises in Nepal, Maldives, and Sri Lanka.
  • However, such interventions sometimes led to political costs, including losses in Sri Lanka and perceptions of a “Big Brother” attitude in the region.
• Domestic Lessons in Conflict Resolution: India’s internal peace efforts, such as the Mizo Accord (1986) where rebel leader Laldenga became Chief Minister, and the ongoing decline of Maoism, demonstrate its capacity for inclusive negotiation and rehabilitation.
• Building Leverage for Global Influence
  • To play a larger mediating role globally, India must enhance its economic power, which serves as the foundation of diplomatic leverage.
  • It needs to expand its presence in international platforms, engage with diverse actors, and develop credible influence rooted in neutrality and trust.

Conclusion

India’s experience and credibility position it well to emerge as a neutral and trusted mediator in an increasingly multipolar world.

• However, to realize this role, it must combine economic strength with active diplomacy and a balanced approach to global power rivalries.

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