Reading the Tea Leaves ahead of China’s Third Plenum

Commentators in the West have been stating for some time that it was time to move beyond the rosy vision of a post-Cold War world, as, according to them, Moscow and Beijing (and certain other states aligned with them) could no longer be expected to become responsible stakeholders within a rules-based international order. 

Reading the tea leaves ahead of China’s Third Plenum

• Against this backdrop, considerable attention is being devoted to the Third Plenum of China’s 20th Party Congress for signs of a possible thaw.
• There is a lingering hope that the plenum, scheduled to be held from July 15-18, might signify a shift in policy and a change in direction, at least as far as China is concerned. 
• Pessimism is, nevertheless, rife in the West that China would ever subscribe to the idea that the security of every country is intimately linked to the security of the other. 
• Yet, China is well known to spring surprises.
• Meantime, a belief exists in the West that China had ‘peaked’ economically following its disastrous ‘Zero COVID’ policy. 
• Also, that China’s economy is still in terminal decline. 
• Hence, the plenum might well pave the way for a change in direction, unlikely though it might look as of now. 
• There is, thus, considerable interest, all around, about the eventual outcome of the plenum.

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Economic reforms, issues

• The fact that the date of the Third Plenum has been advanced this time — it normally takes place in October or November of the year following the standard Five Year Party Congress interval — has spurred this speculation that China is contemplating sweeping reforms to ensure China’s rapid progress in the period ahead. 
• Third Plenums typically set the economic strategy for the next five to 10 years, and are generally viewed as the most crucial Plenum in the Central Committee’s five-year cycle.
• Across the world, many still recall that it was at the Third Plenary Session of the 11th Party Congress in December 1978 that Deng Xiaoping unveiled a whole new range of economic reforms that set China on the path of economic resurgence.
• That China has economic problems is not denied:  An ageing population, shrinking workforce, high levels of debt, and an economy that is still facing problems, notwithstanding the measures that have been put in place. 
• This has given rise to a great deal of pessimism within China itself about its future. 
• Hopes are high that the Plenum will come out with certain new guidelines that would at least convey an impression to the people and the world outside that China’s economy is in good shape.
• It has been a long time since any meeting devoted almost entirely to economic reforms has been programmed by the leaders of China’s Communist Party. 
• Most outside experts, however, are uncertain whether the plenum would indeed provide China an opportunity to experiment with new ideas. 
• Further, that the current leadership would do so. 
• Understandably, China’s ‘Maximum Leader’, Xi Jinping, is hardly in a position to repeat what Deng Xiaoping said at the plenum in 1978 (which was held after Mao’s demise), that China had been 30% wrong, though 70% right. 
• This would amount to an admission of failure on Mr. Xi’s part, which could impact his future.

The view about China’s intentions

• The West’s drumbeat of allegations against China is, meanwhile, set to continue. 
• Notwithstanding the outcome of the plenum deliberations, they will convince themselves that China’s ‘gray zone coercion’ tactics are likely to continue. 
• Activities such as ‘disinformation’ campaigns, interference in elections in democracies, military provocations in the seas around China, within and outside the First and Second Island Chains, the threat to Taiwan and countries in the South and East China Seas will, they claim, remain. 
• Taiwan would also continue to remain the centrepiece of China’s military and propaganda offensive.
• Countries in Asia in particular, may, therefore, need to contend specifically with the threat posed by a mix of Chinese values, cultural expansionism, and national security paranoia. 
• China’s Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) well encompass many of China’s beliefs, leaving little scope for any adjustment.
• Having elevated the issue of national security to the highest level, Mr. Xi in turn sees danger everywhere.
• And this increases the paranoia about China’s intentions in Asia, as also elsewhere.
• China’s approach is, thus, likely to add a great deal of ‘flux’ to an already difficult regional and global situation.
• It could also pose a dilemma for India’s policymakers. For many years now, and more so since 2020, India’s relations with China have remained under deep strain. 
• This is not solely due to the tense situation prevailing on the China-India border, but has been the catalyst. 
• As far as the border is concerned, the Chinese still demonstrate little ‘give’, despite India indicating a willingness to show more flexibility.

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Conclusion

Considerable speculation surrounds China’s upcoming Third Plenum, with hopes for economic reforms and concerns about persistent geopolitical tensions, particularly in relation to the West and India.

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