The Donroe Doctrine: Venezuela’s Fragile Pragmatism

Recent episodes in Venezuela exemplify the “Donroe Doctrine”, a transactional extension of the Monroe Doctrine in which the United States prioritises regime management over regime change, retains compliant governing elites, and seeks strategic dominance and resource extraction rather than nation-building. 

From Monroe to ‘Donroe’ Doctrine

• Transactional neo-colonial Control: Prioritises resource extraction and strategic compliance over ideological alignment or nation-building.
• Shift in Intervention Style: Unlike Iraq/Afghanistan, control is exercised without dismantling the existing governing apparatus.
• Neo-colonial Logic (Nkrumah): States retain formal sovereignty, but economic and political decisions are externally directed.
• Venezuela’s Reality: Nominal independence persists while survival is negotiated under U.S. economic coercion and military pressure.

Contradictions in U.S. Statecraft

• Dual Engagement: The U.S. courted the opposition while simultaneously negotiating with the incumbent power structure, exposing policy incoherence.
• Selective Legitimacy: Public praise for regime insiders coexisted with actions to remove the head of state, blurring objectives.
• Regime Management over Regime Change: Preference to retain institutions to avoid post-2003 Iraq–style collapse.
• Domestic Constraints: Make America Great Again (MAGA)-era aversion to prolonged wars pushed the US toward limited, transactional intervention.

Venezuela’s Limited Choices and Turn to Pragmatism

• Sanctions Shock: Prolonged U.S. sanctions on the oil sector led to hyperinflation and economic collapse.
• Evasion Attempts: Crude exports were rerouted via a shadow fleet to China and Cuba, with limited backing from Russia.
• Strategic Isolation: A U.S. naval blockade disrupted these channels; China and Russia avoided confrontation in the U.S. sphere of influence.
• Pragmatic Pivot: Negotiation with Washington became the only viable survival option, not ideological surrender.

Economic Survival over Ideological Purity

• Stabilisation Gains: Under Delcy Rodríguez , hyperinflation declined, GDP grew modestly, and oil output recovered from <4 lakh to ~9 lakh barrels/day.
• Policy Trade-off: The 2020 Anti-Blockade Law expanded private and foreign participation in oil, exchanging sovereign control for economic relief.
• Ideological Recalibration: The Bolivarian stance opposed unequal terms, not foreign investment per se—coercion has blurred this line.
• Controlled Revenues: Oil earnings flow via U.S.-approved channels, with imports tied to American suppliers, constraining autonomy.

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Constraints on U.S. Leverage

• Resource Challenge: Venezuelan crude is heavy and extra-heavy, making extraction and refining capital-intensive.
• Investor Reluctance: Major firms like ExxonMobil have deemed Venezuela “uninvestable.”
• Market Realities: Low global oil prices compress margins, weakening incentives for large-scale investment.
• Policy Compulsion: Economic constraints may force wider market access, including licensed sales to China and India via intermediaries.
• Limits of Coercion: Even U.S. dominance faces economic ceilings on enforcing absolute control.

Conclusion

Venezuela stands trapped in enforced pragmatism, showing how transactional imperialism has made real sovereignty depend less on independence and more on collective strength.

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