The fallout of Putin helping make NATO ‘great again’

Context:

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has almost doubled its borders with Russia with the addition of Finland as its 31st member in April 2023. 

• Sweden will become a member eventually, once the ratification process gets over and also make the Baltic Sea a NATO lake. 

Changes in the regional security dynamics of Europe:

• For a long, Nordic countries Finland and Sweden had refused to take sides, maintaining military non-alignment and being focused more on their internal socio-economic development, thus making them models of modern welfare states. 
• Their relations with Russia were moderate at best, if not deep enough. 
• But the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the way they had viewed their eastern neighbour and the predictability of its leader. 

Russian actions, European unity:

• Some European countries such as Germany and France had a soft corner for Russia, unlike some Baltic states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania which have been in favour of treading a cautious path. 
• This Russian invasion have now united European countries more than ever before.
• Finland and Sweden membership will mean more expenditure, militarily, and restructuring apart from a stationing of NATO forces under the new command structure and is strategically and economically concern for Russia. 

Spotlight on the Arctic:

• Due to climate change and prospects of harnessing untapped oil, gas and mineral resources, Arctic region is receiving wide attention, creating unexpected and complex challenges. 
• NATO membership for the Nordic countries has brought a new geo-strategic dimension to the Arctic’s future. 
• There have been localised confrontations between Russia and other actors here. 

Implications for India:

• Russia’s Friendship with India: India unlikely to help Russia balance power against NATO, as China-Russia strategic and military alignment may not align with India’s interests.
•  Nordic Region’s NATO Membership: In recent years, the Nordic region has caught the frequency of India’s strategic radar. However, this region coming under a NATO umbrella will complicate India’s strategic choices.
• Arctic’s Militarisation: India has observer status in the Arctic Council and pursues an Arctic Policy to promote multi-level cooperation. 
  • However, Finland’s NATO membership, with Sweden joining soon, may lead to the Arctic’s militarisation, thereby affecting the interests of all actors including India.

News Source: The Hindu