The Great Reckoning: On the Crisis In Iran

Iran is currently experiencing its most severe internal crisis since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, triggered by economic collapse and external pressures.

Background

• Economic Trigger: Protests began on December 28 with a strike by shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar over the collapsing rial and high inflation.
• Compounding Factors: Israeli and US bombings of nuclear sites in June 2025 damaged infrastructure, while the government further angered the public by removing fuel and food subsidies
• Violence and State Crackdown: Protests escalated into violence, prompting a harsh state crackdown; hundreds of civilian deaths were reported, while state media acknowledged casualties among security personnel.

Distinct Nature of the Current Crisis in Iran

• Convergence of Threats: Iran is facing simultaneous domestic unrest and external military threats, unlike earlier crises that were largely isolated.
• U.S. Political Signalling: On January 13, U.S. President Donald Trump urged protesters to “take over” state institutions and said “help is on its way”, escalating external pressure.

Limits of Regime-Change Assumptions 

• Not Internally Isolated: Around 30 million people (about 50% of the electorate) voted in the 2024 presidential elections, indicating continued political participation.
• Visible Public Support: On January 12, thousands participated in pro-government rallies.
• Security Apparatus Intact: There are no visible cracks in the loyalty of security forces despite protests and external pressure.

Risks of External Military Intervention

• Regional Destabilisation: A U.S. attack aimed at regime change could further destabilise West Asia.
• Domestic Violence Spiral: Military intervention could push Iran into prolonged cycles of internal violence.
• Historical Evidence:  U.S. interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya show that regime-change wars do not resolve internal political crises.

Policy Priorities for Iran’s Stabilisation

• Urgent Domestic Reform: Iran needs swift, credible economic, political, and social reforms to address public grievances.
• Role of Foreign Assistance: Reforms can succeed only with foreign engagement and assistance, not war.
• Preferred International Approach: The global community should engage Iran’s leadership and encourage meaningful reform, rather than pursue military solutions.
  

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Conclusion

Violent external intervention would risk chaos similar to Libya or Iraq, while systematic and incremental domestic reforms offer the only viable path to stability.

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