A 28-point peace plan was drawn up by the US for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Historical Background

• Cold War Hostility: The United States and the USSR were long-standing adversaries during the Cold War, marked by ideological rivalry and military competition.
• Post-USSR Phase of Cooperation: After the Soviet breakup in 1991, Russia initially maintained reasonably cooperative ties with the United States.
• Renewed Friction Post-2000: From the early 2000s onward, Russia reasserted its global influence, leading to a steady deterioration in US–Russia relations.
• US’s Attempt to Break the Cold War Mindset: The current US President attempted to transform entrenched hostility into partnership, challenging the US establishment’s belief that Russia can never be an ally.

Key Point of Trump’s Peace Formula

• Territory: Ukraine must surrender some territory to Russia.
• Retention of Occupied Areas: Areas currently occupied by Russia (such as Crimea and East Ukraine) would remain under Russian control.
• No NATO: Ukraine must agree not to join NATO.
• Demilitarization: Ukraine must limit its military capabilities.
• Economic Carrot: Russia would be reintegrated into the world economy. It would be invited back to the G7, making the group G8 again. 
  • Russia was expelled from the G8 in 2014 after the attack on Crimea.

Global Reactions and Trump’s Strategic Logic

• Ukraine and Europe’s Opposition: Ukraine strongly rejected the plan, and European states expressed concern that it heavily favours Russian interests.
• Trump’s Ultimatum to Ukraine: Trump warned Ukraine’s President that refusal to accept the plan could lead to a withdrawal of US military assistance.
• “Reverse Kissinger” Strategy: Trump’s strategy is labelled “Reverse Kissinger”- just as Henry Kissinger befriended China in the 1970s to isolate the USSR, Trump is attempting to befriend Russia to isolate China and pull Russia back into the Western camp
• Tackling the China–Russia Axis: The approach seeks to weaken the emerging “Dragon–Bear” (China and Russia) alignment, which the US sees as its most serious long-term strategic challenge.

Implications for India

• Risk of a US–China G2: India fears the rise of a G2 structure dominated by the US and China, which could limit India’s strategic autonomy.
• Preference for a US–Russia Partnership: India benefits from an E2 scenario, where US–Russia cooperation allows India to maintain balanced relationships with both powers.
• Impact on India’s Security Interests: A weakened Russia–China axis strengthens India’s strategic environment, given India’s tensions with China.
• Policy Flexibility for India: Improved US–Russia ties reduce the pressure on India over its defence and energy engagement with Russia, including oil imports.

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Conclusion

If Trump succeeds in diluting the Russia–China partnership, it would create one of the most significant geopolitical shifts of the century and open favourable strategic space for India.

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