The Ukraine-Russia conflict has fundamentally transformed into a costly test of stamina and endurance, characterised by a brutal military and diplomatic deadlock where neither side can achieve a decisive victory. 

• Three years since the invasion, the battlefield remains largely frozen, despite significant Western aid and relentless offensives.

The Battlefield Stalemate

• Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive in 2023 failed to yield major territorial gains, revealing the strong entrenchment of Russian forces and the limitations of modern Western weaponry.
• Russia, despite its numerical superiority and recent incremental advances, has found these gains costly and has not been able to overwhelm Ukraine without incurring massive military and diplomatic expenses.
• Neither nation currently possesses the capacity to inflict a decisive blow. 
• Ukraine lacks the strategic depth and offensive power to push back Russian positions across the entire front, while Russia cannot justify a total war or occupation in a politically sustainable manner. This has resulted in a brutal equilibrium, where localised gains occur but strategic momentum is absent.

The Role of Western Aid

• The sustained Western military aid, particularly from the US, has been a critical variable in prolonging this balance. 
• A recent shift saw the US decide to resume military supplies to Ukraine, despite earlier stalling.
• However, this aid, while vital for Ukraine’s survival, is often insufficient to guarantee victory.
• It sustains the battlefield stalemate without altering the fundamental dynamics, making the concept of “fighting until victory” increasingly uncertain as neither side can clearly define what victory looks like. 
• It allows Ukraine to survive for a period but not achieve a win.

Challenges to Ceasefire and Negotiation

• Russia could use a ceasefire to regroup, consolidate its control over occupied territory, and diplomatically outmanoeuvre the West, potentially through platforms like BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
• Legitimisation of gains: Ukraine fears that a ceasefire along current lines would legitimise Russian gains in Donbas and Crimea, undermining Ukrainian sovereignty permanently and demoralising its forces.
• Distrust: A key impediment to a resolution is mutual distrust; neither Moscow nor Kyiv believes the other would respect a truce unless guaranteed by force.
• Fear of Escalation: There is a possibility of escalation in the conflict, where Russia could test NATO’s resolve with hybrid threats in the Baltics or through cyberattacks

Broader Geopolitical Context

• The conflict’s focus can easily shift due to broader instability, such as the simmering Iran-Israel conflict in West Asia, which can consume Western attention and resources, risking aid diversion and strategic fatigue for Ukraine.
• The war is reshaping global alignments. While the G7 largely remains united, fatigue is evident in some countries. Meanwhile, BRICS and SCO serve as platforms for Russia to bypass Western isolation.
• India, for its part, maintains a strategic autonomy, condemning suffering but avoiding direct condemnation of Moscow, balancing strong defence ties with Russia and a growing partnership with the US.

Potential Outcomes

• Frozen Conflict: The most probable outcome appears to be endurance rather than victory. A de facto solution could be a frozen conflict, similar to the Line of Control between India and Pakistan, which is undesirable but potentially sustainable.
• Requirements for frozen conflict: Such an arrangement would require security guarantees for Ukraine, the establishment of demilitarised zones, and mechanisms for monitoring compliance, possibly under a UN or OSCE mandate. However, the political will for such a framework is currently lacking.
• New Arenas of Warfare: Escalation remains a possibility, not just on land but vertical escalation in other domains, including space, cyber, or even the nuclear domain. This conflict is seen as a testing ground for new technologies in modern warfare.

The Nature of 21st Century Warfare

• Warfare in the 21st century is not solely determined by firepower. Crucial factors include political clarity, logistical sustainability, and timing. 
• In Ukraine, these three elements are currently in flux, making it a struggle.
• The conflict has become a geopolitical contest of stamina. The challenge for Ukraine’s allies is to ensure that their support does not merely become a euphemism for indefinite survival. 
• For Russia, the fundamental question is whether tactical gains can ever yield strategic peace without making concessions. A resolution without compromise is unlikely.

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