The Presidents of the United States and China are meeting in Busan, South Korea, to sign a trade deal and announce a Global Peace Plan, signalling deeper strategic cooperation.

Emergence of a New Bipolar World

• Consolidation of G2 Dominance: The USA and China present themselves as the two primary global powers, indicating that the world is shifting toward a new bipolar structure.
• Framework of Shared Responsibility: Both nations propose a framework where they jointly assume responsibility for maintaining global peace and stability.

About the Global Peace Plan

• Elements of the Peace Plan: The Peace Plan includes:
  • Exploring limits on nuclear weapons.
  • Preventing use of Artificial Intelligence in nuclear command systems.
  • Negotiating an Outer Space Treaty to prevent anti-satellite targeting.
  • Using combined leverage to pressurise Russia on the Ukraine war (particularly aligned with US objectives).
• Motivations of the G2 Leaders:
  • US: The US leader seeks to portray himself domestically and globally as a “Peace President” capable of striking historic deals, and endorsement by China boosts his political credibility.
  • China: China aims to present itself as co-custodian of global order, positioning China as an equal partner to Washington by projecting leadership through initiatives like the Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative.

Competitive Coexistence- The Nature of the Current Bipolarity

• Unlike the Cold War: The Cold War was ideological (Communism vs. Capitalism) and involved minimal economic interdependence.
  • Today’s bipolarity is characterised by Competitive Coexistence, where both nations compete militarily and technologically but remain deeply connected through trade and supply chains.
• Avoiding the Thucydides Trap: The Global Peace Plan is a mechanism to avoid the historical pattern where rising powers and existing powers end up in conflict.
  • The Thucydides Trap refers to the risk of conflict when a rising power threatens to displace an established one.

Implications for India

• Reduced Strategic Autonomy: A bipolar world pressures middle powers like India, Japan, and Germany to choose sides, narrowing their decision-making independence.
• Shrinking Geopolitical Influence: The dominance of G2 reduces the ability of middle powers to shape global outcomes or negotiate on equal terms.
• Preference for Multipolarity: India’s long-term strategic vision favours a Multipolar World, where power is dispersed across multiple centres rather than concentrated between two superpowers.

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Conclusion

The peace initiative may not end US–China rivalry; instead, it marks the beginning of structured management of competition (managed coexistence) — signalling a new bipolar global order based on competitive coexistence.

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