Answer

Introduction

The Finance Commission’s (Article 280) horizontal devolution and parliamentary delimitation (Article 82) are the two primary pillars of India’s federal architecture. While population serves as the most objective measure of a state’s “need” and democratic “one-person-one-vote” value, its dominance creates a paradox where states are penalized for succeeding in national goals like population stabilization.

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Positive Implications of Population as a Dominant Criterion

Finance Commission Devolution

• Measuring Expenditure Needs: Population acts as a proxy for the direct service delivery requirements (education, health, infrastructure) that a state must provide.
  Eg: The 15th Finance Commission assigned 15% weight to population (2011 Census) , recognizing it as a fundamental indicator of a state’s fiscal “cost disability”.
• Ensuring Horizontal Equity: It ensures that every citizen, regardless of their state of residence, receives a roughly equivalent share of the central tax pool. 

Parliamentary Delimitation

• Democratic Representative Equality: Population-based delimitation upholds the principle of “one-vote, one-value,” ensuring that MPs represent nearly equal segments of the electorate. 
• Reflecting Demographic Shifts: Periodic readjustment ensures that regions experiencing rapid urbanization or migration are not underrepresented in national policy-making. 

Negative Implications: The “Penalty for Progress”

Finance Commission Devolution

• Disincentivizing Social Success: States that have invested heavily in healthcare and literacy to achieve a low Total Fertility Rate (TFR) find their share of the divisible pool shrinking.
  Eg: Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala have seen their share in the tax pool decrease significantly after the shift from the 1971 to the 2011 Census.
• Fiscal Injustice Concerns: Developed states argue that they contribute the highest share of GST and Direct Taxes but receive a diminishing return, affecting their ability to sustain high-quality infrastructure. 

Parliamentary Delimitation

• Regional Political Imbalance: A population-centric delimitation could result in the “Northernization” of Parliament, where a few high-growth states could unilaterally decide the national executive. 
• Erosion of Cooperative Federalism: The fear of political marginalization may lead to “alienation” and friction in the Inter-State Council, undermining the “Team India” spirit.
  Eg: The Tamil Nadu Assembly passed a resolution opposing delimitation based on 2026 population figures, calling it a “threat to democracy”.

Suggested Solutions for a Balanced Federation

• Factoring Demographic Performance: Follow the 15th FC model by giving significant weightage to states that have reduced their fertility rates.
  Eg: The 12.5% weight for “Demographic Performance” helps reward states that achieved TFR targets below 2.1.
• Capping Inter-State Redistribution:Increase Lok Sabha seats while retaining the 2011 Census–based state-wise proportions.
  Eg: Proponents suggest expanding the Lok Sabha to 866 seats so that all states gain, relative gain of northern states will be  moderated.
• Strengthening the Rajya Sabha: Transform the Upper House into a body with equal representation for all states (similar to the US Senate) to protect federal interests against population-based dominance in the Lok Sabha.
• Empowering Local Bodies: Devolve more fiscal powers directly to Panchayats and Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) to ensure that service delivery is not held hostage to state-level political representation disputes.
• Inclusive Delimitation Criteria: Reimagining delimitation by including geographical area and economic contribution alongside population to determine seat allocation.

Conclusion

The debate over 2026 is a test for India’s “essential humanity” and constitutional morality. To maintain the “Unity in Diversity,” India must evolve a “Grand Federal Bargain” where demographic weight is balanced with a performance-based fiscal incentive. Only by ensuring that “progress is not a penalty” can India transition into a Viksit Bharat that is both democratically representative and fiscally fair.

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