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Introduction:

In 2023, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a comprehensive strategic alliance agreement, aiming to bolster cooperation in defence, energy, and counter-terrorism. This landmark development reshapes geopolitical dynamics, particularly for India, which maintains significant strategic and economic stakes in the Middle East comprising energy security, diaspora and remittances, trade and investment and maritime interests .

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Potential Benefits of the U.S.-Saudi Strategic Alliance

• Enhanced Energy Security: Saudi Arabia’s stable role as a leading energy supplier can ensure reliable oil imports for India.
  For instance: The alliance may stabilise oil prices and supply chains, providing energy security essential for India’s growing economy.
• Increased Investment Opportunities: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) targets global investments.
  For instance: This alliance might lead to increased Saudi investments in India’s infrastructure and technology sectors, aligning with initiatives like Make in India.
• Strategic Counterbalance to China: The U.S.-Saudi partnership could serve as a counterbalance to China’s influence in the Middle East.
  For example: Strengthened U.S.-Saudi relations may help India counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), enhancing India’s strategic leverage in the region.
• Enhanced Counterterrorism Efforts: Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in regional counterterrorism initiatives.
  For instance: Improved U.S.-Saudi cooperation can bolster regional stability, indirectly benefiting India by reducing terrorism-related threats.
• Stabilised Regional Security: Stability in the Gulf is vital for the large Indian expatriate population.
  For instance: A stable U.S.-Saudi alliance could lead to consistent and secure remittance flows from the Indian diaspora in the Gulf. 
• Economic Diversification Opportunities: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 aims to diversify its economy.
  For instance: India can engage in sectors like IT, healthcare, and education, benefiting from Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification efforts.

Potential Drawbacks of the U.S.-Saudi Strategic Alliance

• Geopolitical Strain with Iran: India has strategic investments in Iran, such as the Chabahar Port.
  For example: The U.S.-Saudi alliance might strain India’s relations with Iran, jeopardising strategic projects and trade routes crucial for India’s access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
• Dependence on U.S. Foreign Policy: U.S. foreign policies can be unpredictable.
  For example: Over-reliance on the U.S.-Saudi axis could limit India’s strategic autonomy, particularly if U.S. policies conflict with Indian interests, such as potential sanctions on Iran affecting India’s oil imports.
• Human Rights Dilemma: Saudi Arabia’s human rights record is often criticised internationally.
  For example: India might face diplomatic pressure from the U.S. and international community to address Saudi human rights issues, complicating its bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia.
• Impact on Non-Aligned Policy: India traditionally adheres to a non-aligned foreign policy.
  For example: Closer alignment with U.S.-Saudi policies could challenge India’s non-alignment stance, impacting its relations with other Middle Eastern nations like Qatar and Turkey.
• Economic Sanctions Risk: Global economic sanctions can disrupt markets.
  For example: Any U.S.-imposed sanctions on countries like Iran could destabilise global markets, affecting India’s trade and energy imports.
• Intensification of Regional Rivalries: Middle Eastern geopolitics is highly complex.
  For example: The U.S.-Saudi alliance might intensify regional rivalries, complicating India’s diplomatic engagements and economic interests in the broader Middle East, including its strategic partnerships with countries like Turkey and Qatar.

Conclusion:

The U.S.-Saudi Strategic Alliance Agreement presents India with both opportunities and challenges. It can enhance India’s energy security, attract investments, and support counterterrorism efforts. However, it also poses risks such as geopolitical tensions, dependency on U.S. policies, and increased regional rivalries. India must strategically navigate this landscape, leveraging benefits while maintaining its autonomy and non-alignment. Future diplomatic strategies should aim to maximise advantages and mitigate risks through balanced, pragmatic foreign policy measures to safeguard India’s interests.

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