Answer

As India and China mark 75 years of diplomatic engagement, their bilateral relationship reflects an evolving paradigm of competitive coexistence. While strategic rivalries persist, growing economic interdependence. Stability in this relationship hinges on mutual restraint, open communication, and respect for sovereignty hallmarks of a pragmatic approach amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Competitive Coexistence as a Stabilising Factor

• Economic Interdependence as a Buffer: Despite border tensions, China remains India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $136 billion in FY2023. This economic bond incentivizes peace and predictability.
  For example: DGFT data (2023) highlights that despite diplomatic tensions, imports from China, including electronics and pharmaceuticals, grew steadily, reflecting deep commercial ties.
• Multilateral Cooperation Channels: Both nations engage constructively in forums like BRICS, SCO, and G20, where consensus on issues like climate change and global governance promotes diplomatic civility.
  For example: In G20 (2023) hosted by India, China participated in joint declarations on energy transitions and digital public infrastructure despite bilateral tensions.
• Institutional Military Dialogue Mechanisms: Border Personnel Meetings (BPMs) and Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) act as essential communication channels to prevent escalation along the LAC.
  For example: Following the Galwan clash, 16 rounds of Corps Commander-level talks were held , reinforcing protocols and restoring limited disengagement in Ladakh.
• Technological Competition with Strategic Restraint: While India’s 5G ban on Chinese firms shows tech rivalry, both nations avoid full decoupling, maintaining cooperative areas like AI ethics and space governance.
  For example: In ITU and UNESCO-led AI summits, both countries contribute to shaping global AI ethics, showing coexistence in tech governance.
• Counterbalancing Western Influence: Both India and China, despite differing trajectories, oppose a unipolar world order, often aligning to resist Western dominance in WTO, IMF, and UNSC reforms.
  For example: India and China jointly resisted US-led agricultural subsidy norms during WTO Bali and Nairobi ministerials.
• Pandemic and Health Diplomacy: During COVID-19, India and China engaged in vaccine and PPE exchanges, briefly suspending hostilities to respond to a shared health emergency.
  For example: According to MEA (2020), India procured ventilators and PPE from China, while India later exported paracetamol and HCQ tablets.
• Climate Diplomacy and Shared Vulnerabilities: Climate vulnerability aligns Indian and Chinese interests in renewable energy transition and climate financing. Strategic convergence occurs through ISA and UNFCCC negotiations.
  For example: At COP27, both supported the Loss and Damage Fund, demanding differentiated responsibilities from developed nations.

Preserving India’s Strategic Autonomy

• Strengthening Atmanirbhar Bharat in Technology: India must reduce dependency on Chinese tech by scaling semiconductor, electronics, and AI ecosystems through indigenous innovation and global partnerships.
  For example: Under PLI schemes, India plans $10 billion in semiconductor investment to reduce Chinese hardware reliance.
• Diversifying Trade and Supply Chains: India’s push for ‘China+1’ manufacturing strategy can hedge economic risks and build resilient value chains in strategic sectors.
  For example: Invest India portal (2023) notes a 76% increase in Japanese and Korean firms shifting units from China to Indian SEZs.
• Assertive Border Infrastructure: Accelerating development of roads, tunnels, and airfields along the LAC ensures deterrence and rapid mobilization capabilities.
• Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific: India must deepen ties with QUAD, IORA, and ASEAN to counterbalance China’s assertiveness in the Indian Ocean Region.
  For example: Malabar Naval Exercises (2023) with Japan, US, and Australia showcased India’s role as a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific.
• Calibrated Diplomatic Engagement: Pursuing issue-based cooperation with China while drawing red lines on sovereignty enhances India’s global stature and preserves autonomy.
  For example: India’s boycott of Belt and Road Initiative while participating in RCEP negotiations signals selective engagement.
• Strategic Use of Diaspora Diplomacy: Leveraging global Indian diaspora in science, trade, and diplomacy can counterbalance China’s soft power.
  For example: MEA’s Pravasi Bharatiya Divas (2023) emphasized global knowledge networks, projecting India’s cultural and scientific influence abroad.
• Enhancing Strategic Intelligence Capabilities: Upgrading cyber and satellite surveillance infrastructure is crucial to anticipate and counter asymmetric tactics used by China.
  For example: India launched RISAT-2BR2 and Cartosat-3 (ISRO, 2023) for real-time surveillance along strategic frontiers.

Competitive coexistence between India and China offers a pragmatic model for regional stability, despite enduring disputes. By balancing assertiveness with engagement and fostering self-reliance in key sectors, India can preserve strategic autonomy while influencing the trajectory of Asia’s most consequential bilateral relationship in the evolving global order.

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