Answer:
The recent political turmoil in Bangladesh, marked by the resignation of P.M. Sheikh Hasina and her flight to India, has brought new challenges and complexities to India’s regional diplomacy. As Bangladesh navigates through military rule and civil unrest, India finds its strategic interests and regional policy at a crossroads, necessitating a reevaluation of its diplomatic stance.

Challenges India Faces in its Diplomatic Relations with Dhaka:

• Political Instability: The sudden political vacuum and the return of military rule in Bangladesh poses a challenge for India which has historically supported democratic governance in its neighborhood.
  For instance: The abrupt end of P.M. Sheikh Hasina’s tenure could lead to unpredictable policy shifts in Dhaka, affecting bilateral initiatives like border management and anti-terrorism measures.
• Rise of Islamist Influence: The involvement of Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami in protests can potentially alter the secular fabric of Bangladeshi politics, threatening regional security and affecting India’s efforts against radicalism.
  For example: Increased influence of hardline elements could lead to a surge in radical activities at the border, necessitating more stringent security measures by India.
• Economic Interdependence: India’s significant trade ties with Bangladesh are at risk, with disruptions at border crossings and payment delays for Indian exporters, reflecting the fragility of economic reliance amidst political chaos.
  For instance: Recent curfews and protests have led to the temporary closure of key trade routes like the Petrapole-Benapole border, impacting bilateral trade worth millions daily.
• Security Concerns: The unstable political scenario could lead to a refugee influx and a rise in cross-border crimes, compelling India to tighten security measures at a substantial cost.
  For example: Past political upheavals in Bangladesh have historically led to refugee crises, notably during the 1971 war, which had a lasting impact on India’s northeastern states.
• Geopolitical Competition: With P.M. Sheikh Hasina being a pro-India figure, her absence could invite Chinese advancements in Bangladesh, challenging India’s influence in its own backyard.
  For example: China’s recent initiatives under the Belt and Road Initiative in Bangladesh could gain further momentum, diminishing India’s strategic leverage.
• International Image: Maintaining a balance between non-interference and the need to protect its interests could put India’s international image as a regional leader and stabilizer at stake.
  For instance: Overly aggressive policies or perceived interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs could attract international criticism and affect India’s standing in global forums.
• Internal Politics: The political unrest in Bangladesh could resonate with West Bengal’s significant Bengali population, influencing domestic politics and policy-making in India.
  For instance: The influx of refugees or political unrest in Bangladesh could become a contentious issue in West Bengal’s state politics, affecting electoral dynamics.

Potential Strategies for India:

• Diplomatic Engagement: India should maintain open channels of communication with all political entities in Bangladesh, including the interim military government, to safeguard its interests and promote stability.
  For instance: Hosting diplomatic talks with key Bangladeshi leaders and international stakeholders to discuss stabilization efforts and democratic transitions.
• Economic Leverage: Utilizing economic tools such as trade incentives, aid, and investment could help India to exert soft power and foster good relations irrespective of the ruling regime.
  For instance: Offering favorable trade agreements or increasing development aid to infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, thus cementing economic ties.
• Security Collaboration: Enhancing security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and joint operations against terrorism and cross-border crimes can help manage the fallout of political instability.
  For instance: Conducting joint patrols and intelligence-sharing initiatives to curb smuggling and terrorist activities along the Indo-Bangladesh border.
• Cultural and Social Bonds: Strengthening cultural ties and people-to-people contact can serve as a foundation for enduring relations, mitigating political and ideological differences.
  For instance: Promoting cultural festivals and student exchange programs to foster mutual understanding and goodwill between the peoples of both nations.
• Regional Coalitions: Building regional consensus through platforms like SAARC and BIMSTEC to address common challenges like security and development, promoting a collective approach to stability.
  For instance: Initiating regional dialogues focused on security and economic development that include Bangladesh and other neighboring countries.

As Bangladesh confronts its political crisis, India must strategically navigate this transitional phase, balancing its approach between non-interference and proactive engagement. The evolution of India’s diplomatic strategy will be crucial in maintaining regional stability and securing its interests amidst the changing political landscape of its neighbor. This adaptive diplomacy could help India cement its role as a regional leader committed to peace and development.

DOWNLOAD PDF