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Introduction

In 2025, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister visited Dhaka after 13 years, signalling a diplomatic reset amid the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus. The thaw follows Former Bangladesh’s PM ouster and has been facilitated by China through trilateral talks, resumption of visa facilitation, direct flights, and trade discussions whilst current bilateral trade stands below $1 billion.

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Factors Behind the Thaw

• Political Transition in Bangladesh: Leadership change paved the way for recalibrating ties post-Hasina era.
  Eg: Ouster of Former PM of Bangladesh in August 2024 led to a shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy stance towards Pakistan.
• Chinese Mediation: China acted as a facilitator for Pakistan-Bangladesh rapprochement.
  Eg: Kunming trilateral mechanism convened by China with officials from both nations in 2024.
• Restoration of Diplomatic Engagement: Both countries sought to revive diplomatic channels after years of hostility.
  Eg: Agreements to restore visa facilitation for diplomats and explore direct flights in 2025.
• Economic Interests: Efforts to boost trade and educational linkages helped revive relations.
  Eg: Scholarships for Bangladeshi students and discussions to enhance trade from below $1 billion.
• Shared Regional Agenda: Push to revive regional cooperation platforms for mutual benefit.
  Eg: Bangladesh’s Head of Interim government called for reviving the SAARC process during talks with Pakistan’s Foreign Minister in 2025.

Strategic Concerns for India

• Shrinking Strategic Space: Pakistan seeks to exploit India-Bangladesh tensions to increase influence.
  Eg: Reports of Pakistani diplomats supporting Jamaat-e-Islami during 2024 anti-Hasina protests.
• Chinese Footprint Expansion: China’s involvement in mediating the thaw strengthens its South Asian leverage.
  Eg: Kunming trilateral mechanism aligning with China’s Belt and Road priorities.
• Weakening of India-Bangladesh Engagement: Lack of high-level visits risks India’s diplomatic foothold.
• Security Implications: Potential intelligence and military linkages between Pakistan and Bangladesh threaten India’s security.
• Impact on SAARC and Regional Balance: Pakistan may leverage thaw to reshape SAARC in its favour.
• Political Diversification in Bangladesh: India faces the challenge of balancing relations with emerging political players.
  

Conclusion

The Pakistan-Bangladesh thaw, shaped by political shifts and Chinese mediation, poses concerns for India’s strategic influence, security, and regional balance. India should respond through broader political outreach in Bangladesh, stronger economic and connectivity projects, active use of regional groupings like BIMSTEC, deeper cultural and educational ties, and enhanced security cooperation to rebuild trust and maintain its strategic edge.

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