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Introduction

Since February 2022, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has emerged as a major threat to global peace, security, and economic stability. Triggering energy crises, food insecurity, and geopolitical tensions, it impacts Europe, Asia, and emerging economies like India, highlighting the urgent need for a sustainable resolution.

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Strategic Interests of Major Global Stakeholders

• Russia: Seeks recognition of annexed territories, Ukrainian neutrality, and demilitarisation to secure geopolitical influence and buffer zones.
  Eg: Post summit reports suggest that Mr. Putin is open to freezing the war along the frontlines in the south (Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) provided Russia retains full control of Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk).
• Ukraine: Aims to maintain territorial integrity, international support, and security guarantees to deter further aggression.
  Eg: Ukraine rejects land concessions and seeks NATO and EU backing.
• United States: Strives to uphold democracy, NATO credibility, and contain Russian expansionism, while balancing European and global security interests.
  Eg: According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the U.S. has allocated $128 billion in military and economic assistance to Ukraine.
• India: Focuses on energy security, trade continuity, and strategic neutrality, maintaining relations with both Russia and Western powers.
  Eg: India has saved around $13 billion by importing discounted crude oil from Russia in the past two years, according to a study by ICRA.
• Europe (EU & NATO): Seeks regional stability, energy security, and refugee management, while containing Russian influence in Eastern Europe.
  
• China: Pursues strategic leverage, energy and grain supply security, and potential diplomatic influence without direct confrontation.
  Eg: China maintains trade with Russia worth $240 billion(2023) while avoiding overt military support.

Principal Obstacles Hindering Peace Talks

• Territorial disputes: Ukraine refuses to cede annexed regions, while Russia demands recognition, creating an impasse.
  Eg: Conflict over Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson remains unresolved.
• Divergent peace approaches: Ukraine seeks immediate ceasefire, while Russia pushes a comprehensive peace agreement addressing “root causes.”
  Eg: Trump–Putin Anchorage summit (in Alaska) highlighted these differences.
• Sanctions and economic pressure: Western sanctions on Russia escalate economic hardships but also harden Moscow’s negotiating stance.
  Eg: EU sanctions on Russian energy exports increased global oil prices.
• Security guarantees: Ukraine demands credible assurances against future invasions, complicating compromise.
• Global geopolitical rivalries: US–Russia, NATO–Russia, and EU–Russia tensions affect negotiations and third-party mediation.
  Eg: NATO military deployments in Poland and Baltic states heighten Russian security concerns.
• Domestic political pressures: Leaders in Russia, Ukraine, and Western nations face public opinion constraints limiting flexibility.
  Eg: Ukraine’s politicians  have rejected land concessions despite external pressure for compromise.

Addressing these obstacles requires carefully crafted measures for a sustainable settlement.

Necessary Measures to Ensure a Sustainable Settlement

• Negotiated ceasefire: Immediate cessation of hostilities to create space for diplomatic talks and humanitarian relief.
  Eg: Partial freeze on southern frontlines (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) discussed at summit.
• Territorial compromise framework: Agree on temporary arrangements, respecting Ukrainian sovereignty while addressing Russian security demands.
  Eg: Potential withdrawal from Kharkiv and northeast regions in exchange for Donbas control.
• Security guarantees: Third-party peacekeeping or international guarantees to prevent renewed invasion.
  Eg: Proposals include UN or NATO-mediated monitoring mechanisms.
• Economic incentives and reconstruction aid: Support rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure and compensate affected populations.
  Eg: In February 2024, European leaders agreed to commit up to $54 billion until 2027 to support Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction and modernization.
  
• Multilateral diplomacy: Active engagement of US, EU, India, China, and UN to ensure fair settlement and monitoring.
  Eg: China, India, and Brazil have been identified as potential mediators in peace talks, with Russia expressing openness to their involvement.

Conclusion 

A sustainable settlement requires balancing territorial integrity, security guarantees, and economic reconstruction, with active multilateral diplomacy. Resolving the conflict will enhance European stability, global energy security, and geopolitical predictability, while ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and preventing broader escalation in Eastern Europe and beyond.

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