Answer

Introduction

The weakening of the rules-based international order, characterized by the erosion of multilateral institutions and the rise of “resource weaponization,” has converged with deep-seated instability in India’s neighborhood. This dual crisis forces India to navigate a volatile landscape where traditional non-alignment is replaced by “multi-alignment” and strategic pragmatism.

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Complications in Regional Security

• Border Vulnerability Escalation: Porous borders with Myanmar and Bangladesh have become conduits for insurgencies and narcotics, exacerbated by internal collapses in those nations.
  Eg: The fall of the Sheikh Hasina government in 2024 has renewed concerns regarding the “Chicken’s Neck” corridor and cross-border infiltration.
• Maritime Encirclement Risks: Instability in island nations like the Maldives and Sri Lanka allows external powers to establish strategic footprints under the guise of “debt-relief” or security.
  Eg: The pro-China shift in Maldives (2025) directly threatens India’s “Exclusive Economic Zone” and traditional role as a net security provider.
• Terrorism Pivot Shift: Growing instability in Pakistan and the Taliban’s consolidation in Afghanistan have revitalized terror launchpads, targeting critical infrastructure in Jammu & Kashmir.
• Neighborhood Resource Conflicts: Political volatility in Nepal and Bhutan hampers long-term hydroelectric and water-sharing agreements, critical for India’s regional energy security.
  Eg: Frequent leadership changes in Kathmandu have stalled the Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project, affecting the power grid of North India.

Complications in Diplomatic Positioning

• Strategic Autonomy Strain: Global conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions force India to “pick sides,” complicating its “Friend to All” status.
  Eg: India’s continued purchase of Russian oil led to punitive US tariffs of 25% on certain Indian exports in late 2025.
• Global South Leadership Gap: While India aims to lead the Global South, China’s “investment-led diplomacy” often outpaces India’s “capacity-building” approach in Africa and Asia.
  Eg: China’s port investments in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka create a “strategic vacuum” that India’s Neighbourhood First policy struggles to fill.
• Institutional Marginalization Crisis: The weakening of the UNSC and WTO forces India to rely on fragmented “minilateral” groups like QUAD or BRICS, which often have conflicting mandates.

Way Forward for Indian Foreign Policy (2026)

• Neighborhood First 2.0: Moving beyond government-to-government ties to “people-centric” diplomacy, ensuring aid reaches local communities directly to counter anti-India sentiments.
• Strategic Stockpiling Mandate: Developing national “Critical Mineral Reserves” and “Petroleum Reserves” to insulate the economy from global supply chain weaponization.
  Eg: The expansion of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ensure 90 days of fuel security by 2026.
• Minilateralism Consolidation: Strengthening the I2U2 and IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) to create alternative trade routes that bypass hostile maritime chokepoints.
• Defense Indigenization (Atmanirbharta): Reducing 80% of defense import dependency on any single nation by 2026 to ensure “sovereignty of choice” during global sanctions.
• Digital Infrastructure Export: Using the India Stack (UPI, Aadhaar) as a diplomatic tool to build “tech-dependency” in neighboring and African nations.
  Eg: By 2026, India aims to integrate UPI with five more South Asian and Gulf economies.
• Pragmatic China Engagement: Freezing border disputes while maintaining “managed economic ties” to prevent total decoupling, as recommended by the Economic Survey 2025.
• Institutional Reform Advocacy: Leveraging the 2026 G4 Summit to push for an interim permanent seat at the UNSC, reflecting the realignments of the post-Western world.

Conclusion

Indian foreign policy in 2026 must transition from “reactionary balancing” to “proactive shaping.” By leveraging its economic weight and digital prowess, India can align its federal interests with global expectations, ensuring it remains an “indispensable pole” in a multipolar world while safeguarding its immediate borders from the “arc of instability.”

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