Answer

The third nuclear age refers to the current global era marked by the resurgence of nuclear competition characterized by new technologies, multipolar rivalries, and regional conflicts. Unlike the Cold War’s bipolar standoff, this phase involves complex deterrence dynamics, weakened disarmament efforts, and challenges to non-proliferation regimes, as seen in the recent Israel–Iran tensions and evolving military postures worldwide.

Emergence of the Third Nuclear Age: Shifting Norms in Deterrence, Disarmament, and Non-Proliferation

Nuclear Deterrence 

• Erosion of MAD: Preemptive strikes challenge the logic of mutual assured destruction.
  Eg. Israel’s June strike on the Arak reactor aimed to degrade Iran’s nuclear potential before weaponisation.
• Submarine-Based Triads: Sea-launched systems provide credible second‑strike assurance.
  Eg. India’s INS Arighaat and upcoming INS Aridhaman strengthen maritime deterrence capabilities.
• Advanced Missile Threats: Hypersonic and Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle(MIRV) missiles significantly intensify deterrence power.
  Eg. India’s Agni‑Prime MIRV and Shaurya hypersonic missile enhance strategic deterrent complexity.
• Hybrid Escalation in Geopolitics: Covert drone strikes blur the lines between nuclear and conventional warfare.
  Eg. Mossad’s June 2025 drone sabotage of Iranian missile infrastructure signals a new form of escalation.

Disarmament

• Treaty Fatigue and Failures: Key arms-control frameworks are collapsing.
  Eg. The collapse of the INF Treaty (2019) and uncertainty surrounding New START reflect weakening disarmament norms.
• Preemptive Strikes Undermine Treaties: Military attacks on nuclear facilities set dangerous precedents.
  Eg. Israel’s strikes on Natanz, Bushehr, and Arak reactors violate global disarmament expectations.
• Regional Crisis Tensions: Ongoing Israel–Iran hostilities deepen regional insecurity and hamper disarmament efforts.
• Great Power Military Edge: Superpowers prioritize rapid arsenal modernisation over disarmament commitments.
  Eg. Russia and the U.S. deploy hypersonic and dual-use systems instead of pursuing nuclear reductions.

Non‑Proliferation

• Threshold State Risk: Iran’s uranium enrichment undermines confidence in non-proliferation treaties.
  Eg. The IAEA reports approximately 200 kg of 60% enriched uranium, dangerously close to weapons-grade material.
• Collapse of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JCPOA): The failure of multilateral deals erodes non-proliferation norms.
  Eg. The U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Iran deal accelerated Iran’s nuclear advancement.
• Proliferation Pressure in the Middle East: Iran’s nuclear progress motivates regional states to consider nuclear options.
  Eg. Saudi Arabia and Egypt reportedly contemplate nuclear programs if Iran weaponises.
• Verification Disruptions: Conflicts undermine international inspection regimes.
  Eg. The IAEA’s restricted access to Iranian nuclear sites highlights growing non-proliferation challenges.

The third nuclear age reveals destabilising trends including deterrence ambiguity, erosion of arms-control, and fragile non-proliferation regimes, worsened by the Israel–Iran conflict and advanced military modernisation. Strengthening global treaties, crisis communication, and IAEA verification is critical to managing these escalating strategic risks.

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