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Introduction

The IPCC is the United Nations body and was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme for assessing the science related to climate change. As per the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, the global mean sea level is projected to rise by about one metre by AD 2100 under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

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Reasons Behind the Predicted Sea Level Rise:

• Increased Carbon Emissions: Heavy industrial activities, particularly in China’s coal belt and the United States, release massive amounts of CO2, accelerating global warming and, consequently, ice melt and thermal expansion
• Melting Polar Ice: Both the Arctic and Antarctic are experiencing faster rates of ice melt due to global warming. For example, the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica broke off an iceberg twice the size of Luxembourg in 2017, contributing directly to rising sea levels.
• Thermal Expansion: As the Earth’s atmosphere warms, the ocean water also warms and expands. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), thermal expansion is responsible for about 40-50% of the observed sea-level rise since 1900.
• Glacial Retreat: Glaciers are shrinking globally, from the Andes and Alps to the Himalayas. Notably, the Gangotri Glacier in the Himalayas has been receding at an alarming rate, affecting freshwater supply and contributing to sea-level rise.
• Tectonic Activity: Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions can lead to sudden, localized sea-level changes. The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake significantly altered sea levels in the region temporarily but had a lasting impact on local geographies.
• Loss of Ice Shelves: When ice shelves like Larsen B in Antarctica collapse, they no longer act as barriers holding back glaciers. This allows glaciers to flow more freely into the ocean, contributing to sea-level rise.
• Land Subsidence: In cities like Jakarta, over-extraction of groundwater for everyday use is causing the land to sink, leading to a relative rise in sea level. This phenomenon exacerbates the already critical situation caused by global sea-level rise.

Impact on India and Other Countries in the Indian Ocean Region

Impact on India:

• Coastal Erosion: Major cities like Mumbai and Chennai, which have extensive coastlines, are already experiencing increased coastal erosion. A place like Marina Beach in Chennai may suffer significantly, affecting not just tourism but also local ecology.
• Agricultural Loss: The Sundarbans Delta, lowland rice system of Kerala etc crucial for rice cultivation and home to unique biodiversity, is at risk of becoming saline. This would make the land unsuitable for agriculture, thereby affecting the livelihood of thousands of farmers.
• Displacement of Populations: Low-lying areas in states like West Bengal and Kerala may witness large-scale human migration due to consistent flooding and loss of habitable land. This could result in “climate refugees” who will strain urban resources further.
• Impact on Fisheries: The change in sea levels, combined with changes in water temperatures, could result in shifts in marine ecosystems. This is especially problematic for states like Kerala and Goa, where fisheries are a significant part of the economy.
• Infrastructure Threat: Important infrastructures like ports are also at risk. For example, the Jawaharlal Nehru Port in Mumbai, which handles a significant portion of India’s cargo, could face operational challenges due to rising sea levels.

Impact on Other Countries in the Indian Ocean Region:

• Maldives’ Existence: The Maldives is the lowest-lying country in the world, with an average elevation of about 1.5 metres above sea level. There is a very real risk that the Maldives could become uninhabitable or even completely disappear under the sea.
• Bangladesh Flooding: Much of Bangladesh’s land area is less than 5 metres above sea level, making it extremely susceptible to flooding. Even a modest rise in sea levels could result in the displacement of millions of people.
• Sri Lanka’s Tourism: Coastal cities like Galle, popular for their historical landmarks and beaches, could be threatened. This poses a risk to Sri Lanka’s tourism sector, one of its main sources of revenue.
• Economic Loss for Indonesia: Indonesia has critical maritime trade routes, and any disruption caused by changes in sea levels and currents could result in significant economic losses.
• Natural Disasters in Thailand: Low-lying areas like Phuket could become increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters such as tsunamis and cyclones, endangering both human lives and the economy.

Conclusion

The IPCC’s prediction of a one-meter sea level rise by 2100 poses a dire threat, but it also presents an opportunity for countries in the Indian Ocean region to collaborate and innovate in the face of adversity. Preparation, adaptive strategies, and international cooperation are essential to mitigate the devastating impacts of sea level rise. SDG target, community participation and individual role through LiFE is crucial to achieving sustainable Development.

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