The ageing population issue in India is becoming more pressing, with regional disparities in demographic trends. 

• Recently, Andhra Pradesh’s Chief Minister and Tamil Nadu’s Chief Minister  have raised concerns about the declining population in southern states and its potential impact, urging for more children.

Population Growth Statistics & Trends

A. Current Status

• India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR): 1.9 (2021)
  • This is below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1, indicating a trend toward population stabilisation.
  • Despite the lower fertility rate, India’s population growth continues and is expected to persist until 2070 due to population momentum.

B. Future Projections

• World Population Growth: The global population will continue to grow until 2080.
• India’s population is expected to stabilise before the world average, due to the country’s unique demographic trajectory.

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Historical Context and Policy Responses

• Post-Independence Population Concerns: After independence, India faced a ‘population bomb’ that raised alarms about overpopulation.
  • To curb population growth, India implemented harsh measures such as the controversial Sterilisation during the Emergency period.
• China’s Approach: China adopted the One-Child Policy, which successfully reduced its population growth.

It is essential to note that these recent declines in India’s fertility rates are primarily driven by socio-economic factors rather than coercive measures or government incentives.

Reasons for Declining Fertility Rates

Several factors contribute to India’s declining fertility rate, including:

• Cost of Living: The rising expenses of daily life, including healthcare and education, discourage large families.
• Housing Costs: Increasingly expensive housing makes it difficult for families to afford adequate space for children.
• Child-Raising Expenses: The financial burden of raising children, including costs for healthcare, schooling, and extracurricular activities, is a significant deterrent.
• Women’s Career Opportunities: Many women face career setbacks due to unpaid care work, leading them to reconsider having larger families.
• Unpaid Care Work: Women disproportionately bear the responsibility for childcare and household work, limiting their ability to pursue professional growth and contributing to a preference for smaller families.

Key Concerns Regarding Population Dynamics in South India

1. North-South Divide in Ageing Growth Rates

• Southern States: States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu are experiencing faster ageing due to:
  • Lower fertility rates.
  • Increased longevity.
  • The elderly population in these states is growing rapidly, with Kerala having 16.5% of its population over 60 in 2021, expected to rise to 22.8% by 2036. Similarly, Tamil Nadu has 13.7%, expected to increase to 20.8%.
• Northern States: In contrast, states like Bihar have a much lower proportion of elderly people. In 2021, Bihar’s elderly population was 7.7%, with a projected increase to 11% by 2036. 
  • The pace of ageing in northern states is slower due to higher fertility rates and lower longevity.

2. Regional Disparity in Working-Age Population

• With the ageing population growing in the southern states, there is a declining proportion of people in the working-age bracket.
  • This leads to potential economic challenges, as fewer people will be available to contribute to the labour force, impacting productivity, economic growth, and social welfare programs.

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3. Federal Representation and Delimitation

• As the population dynamics shift, federal representation could be impacted after delimitation. 
  • Southern states with lower growth rates may see a reduction in political representation compared to the northern states, which continue to grow at a faster pace. This raises concerns about fair representation in the parliamentary system.

4. Migration Issues: Migration driven by employment opportunities might create friction, as locals might view the influx of migrant workers with resentment. This tension often sparks conflicts between the “sons of the soil” and migrants.

Pro-Natalist Policies as a Solution to Ageing Population Issue

• Pro-natalist policies are policies which are designed with the purpose of increasing the birth rate/fertility rate of an area.
• Pro-natalist policies, which aim to increase birth rates through incentives or other measures, have shown limited success in many countries. 
• Recently, Andhra Pradesh’s Chief Minister Naidu proposed to restrict eligibility for Panchayat elections to those with two children.

Positives of Pro-Natal Policies

• Mitigating Population Ageing: In states like Andhra Pradesh, where ageing populations are becoming a concern, encouraging higher birth rates can help balance the demographic profile, ensuring a sufficient workforce and a stable dependency ratio in the future.
• Sustaining Economic Growth: A younger population supports a vibrant labour force, which can drive economic growth. 
• Ensuring Social Welfare Sustainability: A younger population reduces the burden on social welfare systems by providing a larger tax base. 
  • As the elderly population grows, a shrinking workforce could struggle to sustain pensions, healthcare, and other social benefits. 

Negatives of Pro-Natal Policies

• Economic and Social Pressure: Increased childbearing could lead to higher financial burdens on families, especially those with limited access to healthcare, education, and job security.
• Exacerbating Gender Inequality: Pro-natalist policies, particularly those that place pressure on women to have more children, could inadvertently reinforce traditional gender roles. 
  • This might hinder women’s participation in the workforce, education, and public life, further entrenching gender inequality and limiting women’s empowerment.
• Environmental and Resource Strain: A significant increase in the population can exacerbate environmental challenges, such as resource depletion, pollution, and habitat destruction. 
• Short-Term Solutions for Long-Term Problems: These policies do not address the underlying issues of an ageing population, such as the need for a robust healthcare system and elderly care.
• International Examples: Nations such as Hungary, Poland, and Sweden have implemented various pro-natalist policies, including financial incentives, extended maternity/paternity leave, and tax breaks, yet these have not significantly altered fertility rates. 

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Alternative Solutions to Address the Ageing Population Issue

1. Political Representation and Finance Commission Adjustments

• Revising Representation: Rather than focusing solely on population size for political representation, it is crucial to adopt a balanced approach that also considers factors like life expectancy, age structure, and social indicators to ensure fair representation.
• Finance Commission Adjustments: The Finance Commission should factor in population quality and demographic health, such as longevity, to ensure states with ageing populations, like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, are not disadvantaged in funding for social services and development.

2. Adapting to a Non-Working Age Population

• Reskilling the Elderly: With increased life expectancy, elderly individuals can continue contributing to the workforce, bringing valuable experience and expertise.
• Increasing Retirement Age: To leverage extended life expectancy, raising the retirement age allows older workers to remain economically active longer.
• Flexibility in Work: Flexible hours, remote work, and part-time roles can help elderly individuals stay in the workforce longer.

3. Including Women in the Workforce

• Low fertility rates, especially in southern India, are linked to the gender gap in employment and unpaid care work. 
• Women’s disproportionate caregiving responsibilities limit workforce participation and family size. 
• Policies promoting equal pay, career growth, and better support for working mothers can enhance financial security, encouraging higher fertility rates.

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Conclusion

Instead of focusing on pro-natalist policies, India needs to adopt a more holistic approach to manage the challenges of an ageing population. 

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