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Introduction

While global attention remains focused on geopolitical crises, the silent surge in climate-induced displacement continues to grow. In 2024 alone, over 824,000 people were displaced by extreme weather events, yet climate refugees remain legally unrecognised and policy-invisible. As ecological collapse escalates, so does the urgency to address the definitional, legal, and protection gaps for those forced to migrate due to climate change.

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Key Drivers of Climate-Induced Migration

• Extreme Weather Events and Natural Disasters: Over 600 extreme weather incidents were recorded in 2024, with floods, droughts, and hurricanes driving mass displacement.
• Rising Sea Levels and Submergence Threats: Coastal regions face long-term inundation threats, forcing permanent relocation.
  Eg: By 2050, 17% of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta may be submerged, displacing ~20 million in Bangladesh.
• Desertification and Agricultural Collapse: Prolonged droughts disrupt food security and livelihoods, particularly in the Global South.
  Eg:Central America’s Dry Corridor saw 1.4 million youth displaced due to crop failures and hurricanes.
• Glacial Melt and Himalayan Outburst Floods: Melting glaciers raise risks of flash floods and habitat loss in high-altitude regions.
  Eg: Glacier-fed regions face repeated displacements due to unpredictable disaster cycles.
• Climate-Conflict Nexus: Ecological stress exacerbates resource-based conflict, fuelling multi-causal displacement.
  Eg: In the Sahel, desertification intersecting with armed conflict displaced over 2 million in Burkina Faso.
• Vulnerability of Small Island Nations: Entire island nations face existential threats from rising sea levels.
  Eg: Kiribati and Tuvalu may need US$10 billion in defense by 2050 to remain habitable.
• Infrastructural Inadequacy and Urban Overcrowding: As displaced people move to urban areas, infrastructure collapse and climate gentrification worsen displacement cycles.
  

Challenges to Legal and Humanitarian Frameworks

• Absence of Legal Recognition: The 1951 Refugee Convention does not include environmental causes for displacement.
• Conceptual Confusion and Lack of Definition: No globally accepted term exists; phrases like “climate migrants” or “disaster displaced persons” lack uniformity.
  Eg: UNHCR prefers “displaced persons due to climate change and disasters”, not “climate refugees”.
• Blurred Lines Between Voluntary and Forced Migration: Gradual onset disasters complicate legal categorisation of displacement as involuntary.
   Eg: Pre-emptive relocation due to sea-level rise lacks refugee status.
• Lack of Cross-Border Protection Mechanisms: Most displaced persons remain within borders and fall outside international refugee protection.
  Eg: Only regional or discretionary frameworks, like New Zealand’s humanitarian visa, offer any cover.
• State Victimhood and Institutional Breakdown: Affected states may themselves lack capacity to protect citizens due to resource exhaustion.
  Eg: Climate catastrophes drain states’ ability to support displaced populations.
• Dependence on “Soft Law” Frameworks: Initiatives like the Nansen Initiative and Global Compacts lack legal force and rely on state goodwill.
   Eg:: The Global Compact on Migration recognises climate drivers but imposes no binding obligation.
• Human Rights vs. State Sovereignty Tensions: Reconciling the right to protection with border security and sovereignty remains contentious.
  Eg: 2020 UNHRC ruling based on ICCPR’s right to life offers hope, but is not binding on all states.

Way Forward to Mitigate Legal and Humanitarian Challenges

• Develop a Legally Binding Global Framework for Climate Refugees: Expand the scope of the 1951 Refugee Convention or formulate a new international treaty recognising climate-induced displacement as grounds for refugee protection.
• Establish a Uniform Definition of ‘Climate Refugee’: The international community must converge on a single, inclusive definition to ensure clarity in identification, assistance, and legal status.
• Integrate Climate Displacement into Human Rights Frameworks: Operationalise existing UN Human Rights Committee rulings (like the 2020 ICCPR judgment) and link displacement to the fundamental right to life and dignity.
• Strengthen Regional Legal Instruments: Replicate and expand regionally binding models like Africa’s Kampala Convention and Pacific Island cooperation frameworks to address both internal and cross-border climate migration.
• Institutionalise Humanitarian Visas and Planned Relocation Schemes: Countries should introduce climate-resilient visa pathways and proactive resettlement programmes with global support, especially for Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
• Fund Adaptation and Resilience in Vulnerable Regions: Climate finance should prioritize displacement-prone Global South regions through the Loss and Damage Fund, capacity building, and resilient infrastructure development.
  

Conclusion

Climate-induced displacement is no longer a future threat, it is a lived crisis for millions. Yet the absence of a clear legal identity, protection mechanism, and coordinated policy response keeps climate refugees in a state of legal limbo. Bridging the conceptual, legal, and policy gaps through inclusive global compacts, binding instruments, and regional cooperation is vital. Recognising climate refugees as a legitimate category is not only a humanitarian imperative but also essential for climate justice and global equity in the era of ecological disruption.

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