The Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India this week (his first in four years) comes in the midst of intensifying peace efforts in Ukraine.

The Best Friend Forever (BFF) Myth

• Emotional Basis: The perception of friendship relies heavily on historical events, such as the 1971 war and the prior friendship treaty with the USSR.
• Current State: Today, the relationship has become a ritual. It is primarily a Government-to-Government (G2G) relationship.
• Lack of Engagement: Major Indian private sector companies have hardly any presence in Russia. Furthermore, Russia’s new elites and youth tend to look toward Europe or China, not India.
• Personal Chemistry: If the relationship has endured, it is largely to Putin’s personal commitment rather than a structural Russian interest. 

Economic Foundation and Trade Deficit

• Defense and Energy Ties: India purchases the S-400 missile defense system and Sukhoi 57 jets from Russia, is building the Kudankulam nuclear reactor with Russia’s help, and buys discounted oil. 
  • There are also reports that a deal for the S-500 system might be signed during the visit.
• Weak Commercial Ties: India’s exports to Russia amount to only $5 billion. 
  • In comparison, India exports $11 billion worth of goods to Bangladesh, making Bangladesh’s value more than double that of Russia in terms of exports.
• Need for Strategic Depth: Russia is a $2.5 trillion economy, but the trade volume is marginal with India. 
  • A truly strategic partnership requires strong commercial, technological, and scientific relationships, not just defense purchases. 
  • Without a robust economic foundation, the concept of “multipolarity” remains just rhetoric.

The Geopolitical Context of Putin’s Visit

• Ukraine Peace Dynamics: The four-year war shows signs of de-escalation. The West is considering negotiations, while Zelensky has shifted from “just peace” to “dignified peace.”
• Russia’s Objectives: Seeks G8 readmission and a strong role in the European Security Order.
• US Factor: Trump, the most pro-Russian US President since WWII, has envoys in Moscow (Russia) pursuing a comprehensive deal. 
  • However, Trump’s tariffs on Indian oil imports from Russia reflect a business-oriented approach prioritizing US access over India’s interests.
• European Concerns: Europe fears both Russian aggression and potential US abandonment, demanding inclusive peace solutions.
• Strategic Implications for India: Ukraine war has drawn Russia closer to China, counter to Indian interests.
  • A peace settlement could weaken the Russia-China nexus, expanding India’s strategic space.
  • Improved US-Russia ties may reduce pressure on India regarding Russian oil and defense imports.

Way Forward

• Economic Diversification: India must focus on selling goods to Russia, not just buying weapons.
• Reconstruction Opportunity: India should secure contracts for the massive reconstruction work expected in both Russia and Ukraine following the war.
• Beyond Defense: Partnership must be established in science and technology beyond just defense and nuclear reactor cooperation.
• Triangular Balance: India needs to maintain strong ties with the US, Europe, and Russia simultaneously, which seems possible now.
• Desired Russia: India needs an independent Russia that maintains dialogue with Europe and America, not one that is weak and dependent on China.

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Conclusion

India requires a clear strategy– engage Western nations for commerce and technology, while keeping Russia as a stable partner for defence, energy, and strategic security.

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