On India, Defence Ties With Gulf Nations

UAE President and Ruler of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) paid a nearly two-hour visit to Delhi with only one formal meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Existing Economic Relationship

• Trade Partner Ranking: The UAE is India’s third-largest trading partner, second-largest export destination, and seventh-largest foreign investor.
• Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA): The UAE signed its first bilateral trade agreement with India in 2022.

Key Outcomes of the Visit

• Economic Commitments: Both sides committed to doubling bilateral trade to $ 200 billion.
  • An LNG deal worth 3 billion dollars was announced.
  • The UAE agreed to invest in Gujarat.
• Strategic Defence Partnership: The major announcement was the intention to conclude a framework agreement for an India–UAE Strategic Defence Partnership.
  • This would be the first defence partnership of its kind between the two countries.
  • The development is being closely watched by West Asia and South Asia due to existing regional security tensions.

Regional Geopolitical Background

• UAE–Saudi Tensions: MbZ’s visit occurred amid heightened tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
  • Both countries were earlier part of the same military coalition against the Houthi uprising in 2014.
  • Their rivalry has intensified over influence in Sudan.
  • There is now limited communication between MbZ and Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), which is being described as a new Gulf “cold war”.
• Wider Regional Instability: Protests in Iran and U.S. threats of intervention have added to instability.
  • The Gaza ceasefire remains fragile.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal for a “Board of Peace” has raised concerns about external intervention.
• The Triple Axis: After Israel’s bombing in Qatar in September 2025, Saudi Arabia reportedly fast-tracked a mutual defence pact with Pakistan, with indications that Türkiye may also be brought into the arrangement. 
  • This emerging security bloc risks marginalising the UAE, prompting it to hedge by deepening strategic and defence cooperation with India as a counter-balancing partnership.

Strategic Concerns for India

• Defence Perception Risk: The India–UAE defence talks are being viewed by some as an alignment against other regional blocs, even though India has clarified that it is not seeking involvement in future regional conflicts.
• Need for Gulf Balance: With nearly 10 million Indians living in GCC countries, India must balance its ties with the UAE with stable relations across the Gulf.
• Energy Dependence: As sanctions have limited alternative suppliers, India remains heavily reliant on the GCC for energy security.
• Connectivity Vulnerability: Projects like Chabahar Port, INSTC (International North–South Transport Corridor), and IMEC (India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor) depend on regional cooperation, which is strained by current tensions.

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Conclusion

In a fractured West Asian order, India must combine diplomatic caution with strategic autonomy to protect its economic, energy, diaspora, and connectivity interests without being drawn into regional rivalries.