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Introduction

The renewed Thailand–Cambodia clashes near Preah Vihear have revived a long-standing border dispute, with the ceasefire’s collapse and growing civilian displacement raising serious regional stability concerns. The escalation also exposes ASEAN’s limited crisis-management capacity, underscoring the need for urgent diplomatic intervention.

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Implications for Regional Stability

• Threat to ASEAN’s stability: Escalating violence erodes Southeast Asia’s image as a stable economic region.
• Weakens ASEAN crisis capacity: With ASEAN already stretched by the Myanmar crisis, another conflict undermines regional cohesion as ASEAN is “grappling with a far larger challenge in Myanmar.”
• Risk of broader geopolitical involvement: Heightened tensions may draw in external actors mediating ceasefires, complicating regional diplomacy.
  Eg: The earlier truce required intervention by Malaysia’s PM and U.S. President.
• Triggers economic uncertainty: Persistent clashes create regional economic tensions and reduce confidence in cross-border commerce.

Implications for Bilateral Relations

• Deepening mistrust: Repeated violence revives historical grievances rooted in colonial-era borders.
  Eg: The Preah Vihear dispute dates back to the 1904–1907 Franco-Siamese treaties.
• Deterioration of diplomatic ties: Hostilities have already triggered downgrading of relations and suspension of agreements.
  Eg: Thailand downgraded diplomatic ties after the July landmine blast.
• Fueling nationalist narratives: Both sides may increasingly mobilise domestic opinion around territorial claims.
• Disruption of trade and border cooperation: Border closures and trade bans weaken local economies and hamper connectivity.
  Eg: Cambodia banned Thai goods and shut key border crossings.

Measures to Prevent and Resolve Border Conflicts

• Revive diplomatic dialogue: ASEAN-led or neutral mediation should bring both sides back to structured negotiations.
  Eg: Malaysia’s earlier efforts helped secure a temporary ceasefire.
• Strengthen confidence-building measures: Joint patrols, demilitarised zones or communication hotlines can reduce miscalculations.
• Ground-level border demarcation: Implement mutually accepted mapping and boundary surveys around disputed areas.
  Eg: The Preah Vihear boundary remains “largely un-demarcated on the ground.”
• Humanitarian safeguards: Create cross-border civilian protection protocols to manage displacement during crises.
• ASEAN conflict-prevention mechanisms: Institutionalise early-warning systems and leverage ASEAN’s credibility to prevent escalation.

Conclusion

The Thailand–Cambodia clashes underscore the fragility of regional peace when historical disputes remain unresolved. Lasting stability will require sustained diplomacy, clear border demarcation and credible conflict-prevention mechanisms under ASEAN’s leadership. A return to dialogue, backed by confidence-building efforts, is essential to prevent future escalation.

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