The New World Disorder, from Rules to Might

Amid the Russia–Ukraine war and intensifying U.S.–China rivalry, the post-1945 order anchored in the United Nations faces erosion.

• Global politics is witnessing a shift from rule-based multilateralism to power-centric unilateralism.

The Historical Foundation : Rules Over Power

• The Post-WWII Vision: Following the devastation of World War II and the nuclear bombings of Japan, nations met in San Francisco to establish a rule-based system to prevent the recurrence of global conflict.
• The UN Charter: The United Nations was created to ensure that law controls power, rather than power controlling the law.
  • It was designed to institutionalise collective security, sovereign equality, and peaceful dispute resolution.
• Truman’s Doctrine: U.S. President Harry S. Truman famously stated that even powerful nations must deny themselves the “license to always do as we please,” establishing the principle that all nations, regardless of size, have equal sovereignty under the law.

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Current Breakdown: From Hypocrisy to Indifference

• Erosion of Norms: Actions by major powers such as the United States (e.g., interventions in Venezuela) and Russia (invasion of Ukraine) reflect weakening adherence to sovereignty and non-aggression principles.
• From Justification to Indifference: Earlier, rule violations were justified in the name of democracy or security.
  • However, there is now growing open disregard for international norms, signalling a decline in normative restraint.
• Suggestive Rules: International norms are increasingly treated by powerful states as flexible or optional rather than binding obligations.

Global Consequences and the “Vacuum”

• Erosion of Norms: When major powers such as the United States dilute adherence to international law, other states—including China (Taiwan) and Russia (Ukraine) may assert territorial or strategic claims more aggressively, weakening sovereignty norms globally.
• Proliferation of Small Wars: Declining deterrence and weakened global guardrails risk increasing localised conflicts.
• The China Factor: As the United States retreats from its global leadership role, a strategic vacuum is emerging in international governance.
  • China is increasingly filling this space, shaping rules and institutions in line with its interests, thereby contributing to fragmented global governance.

The Failure of Multilateralism

• Unilateralism vs. Common Problems: Transnational challenges such as pandemics, climate change, and cyber threats require cooperation, yet states increasingly prioritise unilateral action over collective solutions.
• Guardians as Predators: The permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), entrusted with maintaining peace, are often themselves parties to conflicts, leading to paralysis and loss of credibility.
• Weaponisation of Systems: Trade, sanctions, and human rights mechanisms are increasingly used as instruments of geopolitical leverage rather than neutral norms.

The “Interregnum”: A Dangerous Middle Ground

• A Lame System: The existing international order persists but lacks cohesion and authority.
  • The middle powers, such as India, Brazil, and South Africa, continue to support the United Nations for normative protection.
• Antonio Gramsci’s Interregnum Thesis: The contemporary world reflects an interregnum, a transitional phase where the old international order is eroding while a coherent and stable alternative has yet to crystallise, creating space for instability and systemic uncertainty.

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Conclusion

The real danger is the gradual erosion of norms, where power supersedes law, weakening the foundations of the rules-based international order.

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