Myanmar’s 2025–26 Elections: Military Rule, Civil War and India’s Strategic Dilemma

Five years after the 2021 military coup, Myanmar conducted phased elections in late 2025–early 2026.

Background of the Political Crisis

• The 2021 Coup: On 1 February 2021, the Myanmar military seized power, ousting the democratically elected government.
• Imprisonment of Leaders: Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and many leaders of the National League for Democracy (NLD) were jailed.
• Manufactured Legitimacy: The elections, conducted in three phases, are described as attempts to artificially project political legitimacy rather than to reflect genuine democratic consent.
• Limited Participation: Voting occurred in only 265 of 330 towns. Polling was largely confined to urban wards, as most rural areas remained under the resistance influence.
  • Restricted voting across limited townships and controlled political participation ensured the victory of the military’s political wing, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).
• Declining Turnout: Turnout fell to 55% (down from 70% in previous elections).
• Banned Opposition: Major parties such as the National League for Democracy (NLD), Arakan National Party, and Shan Nationalities League for Democracy were dissolved.

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The Reality of Civil War and “Fragmented Sovereignty”

• Human Cost: The ongoing civil war has resulted in nearly 8,000 deaths (including civilians and journalists) and the destruction of 113,000 homes.
• Resistance Movements: The People’s Defence Forces (PDF) and various ethnic armies have risen against the junta.
• Loss of Control: Resistance groups now control approximately 91 towns, resulting in a state of “fragmented sovereignty” in which the military government effectively rules only major cities and the capital.

India’s Strategic Bind: Principles vs. Pragmatism

• The Democratic Dilemma: As the world’s largest democracy, India feels pressured to support democratic transitions, yet it cannot afford to alienate the junta.
  • Myanmar is both a strategic neighbour and a gateway to Southeast Asia, crucial for its Act East Policy.
• The China Factor: Pushing the military government away could drive Myanmar closer to China, with which it already shares close ties.
• Internal Security: India relies on the Myanmar military to cooperate in controlling insurgency in the North-East. If relations sour, Indian insurgents could find a safe haven in Myanmar with junta support.
• Refugee Crisis: India shares a 1,643 km border with Myanmar. Currently, over 90,000 refugees have entered states like Mizoram and Manipur.
• Strained Resources: The lack of a national refugee policy has placed the entire burden on state governments, heightening ethnic tensions in the border regions.
• Stalled Projects: Major connectivity initiatives, such as the Kaladan Multi-modal project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, remain stalled due to the prevailing security instability.

Transnational Crime and “Cyber Slavery”

• Lawlessness: The weakening of central authority has turned Myanmar into a hub for narcotics smuggling and online scams.
• The Scam Centres: Myanmar has become a global scam centre for digital arrests and human trafficking.
• Indian Victims: Since 2022, over 2,000 Indians have been rescued from cyber slavery, a new form of human trafficking where individuals are forced to conduct online scams

India’s Policy of Constructive Engagement

• Balanced Diplomacy: India has adopted a balanced approach, expressing support for democratic transition without officially rejecting the election results.
• High-Level Dialogue: In August 2025, Prime Minister Modi met with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit to discuss bilateral issues and urged the holding of inclusive elections.
• Humanitarian Aid: Operation Brahma was a significant initiative by India to provide earthquake relief and field hospitals to Myanmar following the devastating 2025 earthquake

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Conclusion

India should pursue constructive, multi-track engagement, balancing limited interaction with the regime while maintaining channels with resistance groups to safeguard long-term interests.

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