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UPSC GS Paper – 3: Q18. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What would be its impact in India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region?

Gaurav Soni September 30, 2023 04:37 5742 0

Daily Answer Writing DAILY UPSC ANSWER WRITTING 2023 General Studies-III

Analyze the impact of a projected 1-meter global sea level rise by 2100 on India and other countries. Insights for UPSC GS Paper 3

UPSC GS Paper – 3: Q18. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What would be its impact in India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region?

Q18. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What would be its impact in India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region?

How to approach the question

Introduction

●      Write about IPCC and its report over sea level rise by AD 2100 briefly

Body

●      Write the reasons behind the predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100

●      Write its impact in India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region

●      Write suitable way ahead in this regard

Conclusion

●      Give appropriate conclusion in this regard

Introduction

The IPCC is the United Nations body and was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme for assessing the science related to climate change. As per the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, the global mean sea level is projected to rise by about one metre by AD 2100 under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

Body

Reasons Behind the Predicted Sea Level Rise:

  • Increased Carbon Emissions: Heavy industrial activities, particularly in China’s coal belt and the United States, release massive amounts of CO2, accelerating global warming and, consequently, ice melt and thermal expansion
  • Melting Polar Ice: Both the Arctic and Antarctic are experiencing faster rates of ice melt due to global warming. For example, the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica broke off an iceberg twice the size of Luxembourg in 2017, contributing directly to rising sea levels.
  • Thermal Expansion: As the Earth’s atmosphere warms, the ocean water also warms and expands. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), thermal expansion is responsible for about 40-50% of the observed sea-level rise since 1900.
  • Glacial Retreat: Glaciers are shrinking globally, from the Andes and Alps to the Himalayas. Notably, the Gangotri Glacier in the Himalayas has been receding at an alarming rate, affecting freshwater supply and contributing to sea-level rise.
  • Tectonic Activity: Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions can lead to sudden, localized sea-level changes. The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake significantly altered sea levels in the region temporarily but had a lasting impact on local geographies.
  • Loss of Ice Shelves: When ice shelves like Larsen B in Antarctica collapse, they no longer act as barriers holding back glaciers. This allows glaciers to flow more freely into the ocean, contributing to sea-level rise.
  • Land Subsidence: In cities like Jakarta, over-extraction of groundwater for everyday use is causing the land to sink, leading to a relative rise in sea level. This phenomenon exacerbates the already critical situation caused by global sea-level rise.

Impact on India and Other Countries in the Indian Ocean Region

Impact on India:

  • Coastal Erosion: Major cities like Mumbai and Chennai, which have extensive coastlines, are already experiencing increased coastal erosion. A place like Marina Beach in Chennai may suffer significantly, affecting not just tourism but also local ecology.
  • Agricultural Loss: The Sundarbans Delta, lowland rice system of Kerala etc crucial for rice cultivation and home to unique biodiversity, is at risk of becoming saline. This would make the land unsuitable for agriculture, thereby affecting the livelihood of thousands of farmers.
  • Displacement of Populations: Low-lying areas in states like West Bengal and Kerala may witness large-scale human migration due to consistent flooding and loss of habitable land. This could result in “climate refugees” who will strain urban resources further.
  • Impact on Fisheries: The change in sea levels, combined with changes in water temperatures, could result in shifts in marine ecosystems. This is especially problematic for states like Kerala and Goa, where fisheries are a significant part of the economy.
  • Infrastructure Threat: Important infrastructures like ports are also at risk. For example, the Jawaharlal Nehru Port in Mumbai, which handles a significant portion of India’s cargo, could face operational challenges due to rising sea levels.

Impact on Other Countries in the Indian Ocean Region:

  • Maldives’ Existence: The Maldives is the lowest-lying country in the world, with an average elevation of about 1.5 metres above sea level. There is a very real risk that the Maldives could become uninhabitable or even completely disappear under the sea.
  • Bangladesh Flooding: Much of Bangladesh’s land area is less than 5 metres above sea level, making it extremely susceptible to flooding. Even a modest rise in sea levels could result in the displacement of millions of people.
  • Sri Lanka’s Tourism: Coastal cities like Galle, popular for their historical landmarks and beaches, could be threatened. This poses a risk to Sri Lanka’s tourism sector, one of its main sources of revenue.
  • Economic Loss for Indonesia: Indonesia has critical maritime trade routes, and any disruption caused by changes in sea levels and currents could result in significant economic losses.
  • Natural Disasters in Thailand: Low-lying areas like Phuket could become increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters such as tsunamis and cyclones, endangering both human lives and the economy.

Way Ahead

  • Adaptive Infrastructure: Beyond just building flood-resistant infrastructure like seawalls, India and other Indian Ocean countries could invest in “living shorelines” that use natural elements like mangrove trees to reduce erosion and act as natural barriers.
  • Sustainable Practices: In addition to restricting land use near vulnerable coastlines, implement systems for “managed retreat,” where communities are gradually moved inland. This could be aided by tax incentives for relocation to less vulnerable areas.
  • Collaborative Monitoring: Create a decentralized, blockchain-enabled data-sharing platform among Indian Ocean countries. This would facilitate real-time, tamper-proof monitoring of sea-level data and weather patterns, making predictive modelling more accurate.
  • Climate-Resilient Crops: Beyond salt-tolerant crops, invest in aquaponics and vertical farming methods that can function in areas with compromised soil quality due to saline water intrusion.
  • Emergency Funds: Introduce blockchain-based “climate tokens,” which could be redeemed for essential services in emergency situations. These tokens would be part of a financial safety net and could be distributed quickly and transparently to affected communities.
  • Policy Alignment: Adopt “Green Bonds” and incentivize private investments for climate-resilient infrastructure. Ensure national policies not only align with global climate goals but are also adaptive to emerging climate research and international best practices.
  • International Collaboration: Foster partnerships with global organizations like the IPCC for technical know-how. Also, consider a “Climate Silk Road” initiative that brings Indian Ocean countries together for collaborative projects and shared technologies.
  • Public Awareness: Utilize gamification methods to make public awareness campaigns more engaging. Apps that offer rewards for environmentally-friendly behaviours can encourage more people to take climate change and its impact seriously.

Conclusion

The IPCC’s prediction of a one-meter sea level rise by 2100 poses a dire threat, but it also presents an opportunity for countries in the Indian Ocean region to collaborate and innovate in the face of adversity. Preparation, adaptive strategies, and international cooperation are essential to mitigate the devastating impacts of sea level rise. SDG target, community participation and individual role through LiFE is crucial to achieving sustainable Development.

 

 

For a Detailed explanation of the UPSC GS-01 Mains question 2023, click here.

For a Detailed explanation of the UPSC GS-02 Mains question 2023, click here.

For a Detailed explanation of the UPSC GS-03 Mains question 2023, click here.

For a Detailed explanation of the UPSC GS-04 Mains question 2023, click here.

 

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