How the 2024 Bangladesh Elections Influences India Bangladesh Relations

Context: This article is based on the news “Bangladesh elections today: The significance for India, explained” which was published in Indian Express. As elections in Bangladesh are scheduled to take place on 7 January, India is closely observing the process. 

Bangladesh Elections 2024 and Its Impact on India Bangladesh Relations

• Ruling and Opposition Party in Bangladesh: The Awami League (AL), led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has ruled Bangladesh since 2009 whereas the main opposition  party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by former prime minister Khalida Zia is boycotting the January 7 election amid violence.
• The BNP was in power for the period from the year 2001 to 2006.
• International Pressure for Democratic Elections: Extra Regional powers like the US, UK, Japan, and Australia have put pressure on the nation to hold free, fair, transparent elections giving the opposition party a viable chance to compete.
• Suppression of Dissent: The government in Bangladesh is stifling dissent by permitting the arrest of opposition members and impeding their campaign through the threatening and brutally attacking their supporters. 
  • Concerns such as corruption and inflation have also been associated with the protests and boycotts.
• Significance of Bangladesh Elections for India: India supports the current incumbent, Sheikh Hasina as she has nurtured a friendly and mutually advantageous relationship between the two countries over the years.
  • Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is pursuing a fourth term in office as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh.
  • She is the daughter of Mujibur Rehman who served as the first President of Bangladesh and President of Awami League and later as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh from 17 April 1971 until his assassination on 15 August 1975.

Political Parties of Bangladesh and it’s Ramifications on India

• Awami League: 

• • Cooperation with India in Growth and Development: The Awami League (AL), led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ruling Bangladesh since 2009 has a pan-Bangladesh presence.
    • It has nurtured strong bonds with India with cooperation in growth and development.
  • Acting against Security Threats: It alleviated India’s security challenges along the eastern border of India with proactive measures  in tackling terror groups and militancy.
    • It acted against ethnic insurgent groups operating from Bangladesh to harm the interests of India’s northeastern states.
    • Bangladesh signed an Extradition treaty in 2013 for deporting militants to india.
    • It handed over the key leaders of the secessionist (United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)  to India whose main objective was an independent Assam.
  • Action Against anti-India militant groups: It cracked down on the activities of anti-India militant groups which operated training camps and transported arms through routes in Bangladeshi territory.
  • Land Boundary Agreement: The historic agreement facilitated the transfer of 111 enclaves, adding up to 17,160.63 acres, from India to Bangladesh. Conversely, India received 51 enclaves, adding up to 7,110.02 acres, which were in Bangladesh
  • Line of Credit:  In 2010, during Hasina’s visit to India, India extended $1 billion in credit to Bangladesh under its development assistance programme. Bangladesh is currently the largest recipient of such assistance from India, to the tune of $8-9 billion.
  • Ganga Water Treaty: In 1996, during Hasina’s first term in office as prime minister, the two countries signed the Ganga Water Treaty on sharing waters of the river Ganges.
  • Connectivity to North Eastern States: Access to India’s northeastern region via Bangladesh diminishes the vulnerability previously associated with connecting to the northeast solely through the Siliguri Corridor, commonly referred to as the Chicken’s Neck region.

• Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Alliance

  • Hostility Towards India: The BNP alliance is the opposition party in Bangladesh which is supported by radical, orthodox political forces, like Jamaat-e-Islami. ,It displayed hostility towards India and was allegedly linked to Pakistan’s ISI.
  • Support to Islamist Radicals:It supported hardline Islamist radicals which are critical of many of India’s policies and accuse India of acting against the interests of Muslims.
  • Support to Jihaadi Groups:  The loss of Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina could pave the way for the return of Islamists in Bangladesh.
  • Support for Anti- India Activities: Bangladesh National Party (BNP) under Khaleda Zia had close ties to Islamist fundamentalist groups in Bangladesh.
    • It refused to take actions against anti-Indian organisations like the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) from seeking sanctuary in Bangladesh. Zia and the BNP are thought to be developing strong relationships with China, India’s strategic adversary.
  • BNP ties with China: The BNP has developed strong relationships with India’s strategic rival China.

Challenges in India Bangladesh Relations

• Sanction by US: The United States has openly expressed its dissatisfaction with the ‘undemocratic’ procedures adopted by the Awami League in the lead-up to the election.
  • The United States sanctions on Bangladesh may force increased dependence of Bangladesh on China.
  • Several Western nations have advocated for imposing sanctions on Bangladesh, citing alleged human rights abuses and extrajudicial killings.
• Chinese Factor: Bangladesh aligns strategically with China with its investments in BRI-financed infrastructure projects having surpassed $10 billion. 
  • Bangladesh’s two-way trade with China exceeded $25 billion in 2022. 
  • The import of Indian electricity to Bangladesh currently stands at 1,160 MW but it has enabled around $450 million of Chinese investments into 1,845 MW domestic power generation as of 2021. 
• Concerns of  Minorities: The Hindu minorities in Bangladesh have faced atrocities by the majority population.
  • Hindus comprise a meagre 8 percent of the country’s population.
• Concerns of Influx of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants from Bangladesh: The influx of illegal migrants from Bangladesh into West Bengal and Assam has created demographic challenges as well as posed a burden on resources meant for Indian citizens.
• Illegal Migration and Human Trafficking: The rackets involved in illegal infiltration and human trafficking are active along both sides. 
  • The Anti-Human Trafficking Unit of the BSF recently rescued two Bangladeshi and one Indian woman from the clutches of human traffickers.
  • According to the South Bengal Frontier of the Border Security Force (BSF), 2,345 persons were apprehended for illegally crossing the border between January to November 2023.
• Smuggling of goods:  A range of commodities are traded illicitly across the entire stretch of the border. 
  • According to an estimate in 2014, illegal exports from India to Bangladesh were about $4 billion, which is almost the same as the volume of formal trade.  
  • There is rampant smuggling of gold and Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN) along the border.
  • In the year 2022, the South Bengal Frontier seized about 114 kilogram of gold and the FICN seized along the frontier had increased from fake currency valuing 3.33 lakh in 2022 to fake currency valuing ₹15.86 lakh till November 2023.
• Drug Trafficking: Bangladesh is increasingly being used as a  transit point by drug dealers and the drug mafia,  which  dispatches  heroin  and  opium  from  Burma,  and  other  countries  of  the  golden  triangle,  to  different destinations.
• Cattle Smuggling: Every year, more than 2 million Indian cattle are smuggled to Bangladesh due to porous India-Bangladesh border. 
• Water Sharing Issues:The Teesta River, originating in the Himalayas and flowing through Sikkim and West Bengal before merging with the Brahmaputra in Assam (Jamuna in Bangladesh), is a major point of contention between India and Bangladesh, both friendly neighbors.

Must Read: Drug Trafficking In India 

Way Forward to the India Bangladesh Relations

• Securing Bi-partisan Support: India’s official stance is to engage with whoever holds power in Bangladesh, and New Delhi has extended its outreach to Khaleda Zia on multiple occasions.
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Khaleda Zia (Leader of BNP)  during his visit to Bangladesh in 2015, three years after her visit to India in 2012. During India’s visit she was quoted as expressing that it marked “a new beginning” in discussions with then Indian external affairs minister Salman Khurshid.
• Addressing the issue of illegal migration: Measures should be taken to resolve the issue of illegal migration and ensure that illegal migrants do not acquire voting rights and Indian nationality.
  • According to the Union home ministry’s annual report for 2022-23, fencing and road construction along the 4,000 kilometre India-Bangladesh border will be completed by March 2024.
• Security cooperation:  There is a need for institutionalizing the security cooperation so that it does not remain restricted to the tenure of a particular government in either country. 
• Water Sharing Issue: A beginning could be made by signing the bilateral extradition treaty Agreement on water sharing. Early resolution of the Teesta issue is necessary. 
• People-to-people: Growth in people-to-people contact needs to be encouraged. Hence liberal visa system should be put in place.

Conclusion

The results of the 2024 Bangladesh elections are crucial for India Bangladesh relations, as the re-election of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League would likely contribute to the maintenance of robust cooperation between the two nations.