India Overtakes China as World’s Most Populous Country

India has now overtaken China to become the world’s most populous country.

India’s Population Trajectory

• Historical Context: In 1947, at the time of its independence, India’s population stood at approximately 350 million. In comparison, China’s population in 1951 was significantly higher, at 550 million.
• China’s Economic Rise : China’s subsequent ascent to become a global economic power was significantly aided by its early investments in education and healthcare.
• Demographic Issues: In contrast, India’s failure to make similar investments, particularly in its Hindi-speaking states, has contributed to long-term demographic issues.

India’s Demographic Dividend

• Demographic Dividend: This phase refers to a period when the working-age population is high and the dependent population is low. This favorable age structure can potentially boost economic growth.
  
• India’s Dividend Period: India’s demographic dividend began in the 1980s and is expected to end by 2040. Some reports also indicate it might peak around 2041 and last until 2055, depending on specific definitions and projections.
• Post-2041 Trends: Post-2041, the working-age population is projected to decline, and the ageing population will significantly increase, shifting the demographic advantage.
• Job Creation Challenge: A major challenge for India has been its inability to generate enough non-farm jobs to absorb its growing young population. 

Unemployment Crisis in India

• New entrants:  India experiences a continuous influx of young individuals entering the labour force each year. 
• Currently Unemployed Individuals: This refers to those who are actively seeking work but are unable to find it. 
  • While official unemployment rates might vary, there’s a significant segment of the population struggling to secure gainful employment.
• Discouraged’ workers: They are individuals who have stopped looking for work due to repeated failures or a belief that no jobs are available
• NEETs (Not in Education, Employment, or Training): They  are a significant concern, especially among the youth. This category includes young people who are disengaged from both the education system and the labor market,
• Underemployed Agricultural Workers: A substantial portion of India’s workforce is engaged in agriculture, often characterized by underemployment. This means that people are working, but their work is not productive enough.

Regional Disparities in Fertility Rates

• High Fertility Pockets: High fertility rates persist in certain states, with Bihar (TFR 3.0), Uttar Pradesh (TFR 2.7), and Jharkhand (TFR 2.4) showing significantly higher Total Fertility Rates (TFRs).
• Replacement Level: The replacement level fertility rate, needed for a population to replace itself, is 2.1.
• National Trend: India’s overall TFR is 2.0. This figure is below the replacement level, indicating that the country is approaching population stability.
• Global Fertility Decline: The global fertility rate has seen a significant decline, falling from 5 in 1950 to 2.25 in 2024. 
  • This indicates a worldwide trend towards smaller family sizes.
• India’s Performance: India, when excluding its high TFR (Total Fertility Rate) states, is performing better than the global average in terms of fertility rates. 
  • This highlights that while some regions in India still have higher fertility, a large part of the country has already achieved or surpassed the global average in fertility reduction.

Family Planning in India

• Unmet Need: Unmet need refers to individuals (specifically, women of reproductive age) who want to limit or space their pregnancies but are not using any method of family planning due to lack of access, information, or other barriers.
• National Average: India’s national average for unmet need for family planning is 9.4% (NFHS-5, 2019-21). While your provided text states 12.9% (which was the figure for NFHS-4, 2015-16), the latest NFHS-5 data shows a significant decline to 9.4%
• Uttar Pradesh: Has an unmet need of 12.8% (NFHS-5). Your provided text stated 18.1%, which was an earlier estimate or based on a specific sub-group.
• Bihar: Has an unmet need of 13.6% (NFHS-5). Your provided text stated 21.2%, which was an earlier estimate or based on a specific sub-group.
• Population Impact: Uttar Pradesh and Bihar together constitute nearly one-fourth of India’s population. 
  • The high unmet need in these states therefore has a substantial impact on national demographic trends and the overall success of family planning initiatives.

Child Marriage and Fertility in India

• Prevalence in Bihar: 42.5% of girls in Bihar are married before 18 years of age. This is a significantly high figure.
• National Average: The national average for child marriage is 26.8% (referring to women aged 20-24 married before 18 as per NFHS-4 data). The latest NFHS-5 data (2019-21) indicates a decline to 23.3% nationally, but Bihar’s figures remain high.
• Campaign Ineffectiveness: The high rate in Bihar highlights the failure of campaigns like ‘Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao’ (Save the Daughter, Educate the Daughter) to fully address the deep-rooted issues leading to child marriage in certain regions.
• Gender Inequality and Fertility: The UNFPA 2025 report notes that gender inequality significantly shapes fertility aspirations. 
  • This implies that societal norms and limited agency for women, including early marriage, directly influence their reproductive choices and family sizes.

Family Planning Method Usage in India

• Overall Usage: Only 53.5% of Indian couples use any family planning method. This indicates a significant gap in contraceptive prevalence.
• Regional Disparities:
  • In Uttar Pradesh (UP):
    • 41.5% of couples use any family planning method.
    • 31.7% use a modern method.
  • In Bihar:
    • 24.1% of couples use any family planning method.
    • 23.3% use a modern method. These figures for UP and Bihar highlight significantly lower adoption rates compared to the national average, especially for modern methods, contributing to higher fertility rates in these states.
• Unintended Pregnancies (UNFPA Survey): A UNFPA survey conducted across 14 countries revealed that one-third of respondents had experienced unintended pregnancies. 
  • This underscores a global challenge in reproductive autonomy and access to effective family planning. 

Urbanization Challenges in India

• Correlation: States with high fertility rates also have the lowest per capita income. This indicates a strong inverse relationship between socioeconomic development and population growth, where lower economic prosperity often correlates with higher birth rates.
• Haphazard Urbanization: Many urban areas are becoming unlivable due to haphazard urbanization. This unplanned growth leads to significant strain on infrastructure, resources, and civic amenities, causing issues like congestion, pollution, and inadequate services.
• Migration : A significant factor contributing to this urban strain is migration from the Hindi belt (states characterized by high fertility rates like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar).
  • People from these regions often migrate to urban centers in search of better economic opportunities

Aging Workforce and Preparedness Challenges

• Aging Workforce Demographics: Half of India’s current 610 million workforce is aged above 45 years.
• Impending Retirements: This demographic structure implies that in the next 15 years, the majority of the current workforce will retire. 
• Lack of Preparedness (UNFPA): The UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) emphasizes that while an ageing population is not a surprise – as it’s a predictable outcome of declining fertility and increasing life expectancy – India’s preparedness for it is notably lacking.
• Awareness Gap: A key issue contributing to this lack of preparedness is the lack of awareness among policymakers regarding ageing-related policies. 

Way Forward

• Investment in Human Capital: There must be massive investment in education and health, with a particular focus on the Hindi belt.
• Skill Development : Prioritize skill development programs to enhance the employability of the youth. 
  • Simultaneously, focus on non-farm job creation to absorb the growing workforce that cannot be sustained by agriculture.
• Expansion of Reproductive Health Services: Expand the reach and improve the awareness of reproductive health services. 
  • This includes ensuring access to a full range of family planning methods and accurate information, especially in states with high unmet needs.
• Curb Child Marriage : Implement stringent measures to curb child marriage and vigorously promote gender equality. 
  • Empowering girls and women through education and autonomy will have a significant positive impact on fertility rates and overall societal development.
• Prepare Ageing Population Policies: Develop and implement comprehensive policies for the ageing population. 
  • This includes strengthening social security, improving healthcare infrastructure and access for the elderly, and ensuring robust pension systems to provide financial stability in old age.

Conclusion

India’s demographic future hinges on urgent, inclusive action. Without investing in people, numbers alone won’t yield progress. The real test lies in turning population into power, not pressure.