Injustice in the Delay: On the Next Census

India will conduct its long-delayed population census by March 1, 2027, after a 16-year gap, the Ministry of Home Affairs announced recently.

Delay in Census

• COVID-19:  India’s decadal Census, originally slated for 2021, was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Schedule: The updated schedule indicates that the Census will be completed by March 2027, marking a significant six-year delay.
• Political Overtones:  The additional delay is believed to be politically motivated, raising concerns about data manipulation or timing for electoral benefits.
• Impact of Delay: Several welfare schemes, especially for vulnerable populations, rely on updated demographic data. The delay affects efficient and targeted delivery.
  • Stalled Policy Planning: Without current population figures, development planning, resource allocation, and infrastructure creation remain misguided or outdated.

Significant changes associated  with Census 2027

• Technological Shift: The upcoming exercise will be the first Census to be conducted digitally, with electronic data collection and transmission.
• Faster Data Collection : This shift is expected to enable quicker data gathering, dynamic updates, and easier analysis, boosting the policy-making process.

Challenges Associated with Census 2027

• Data Privacy Concerns:  The digital nature raises cybersecurity and privacy concerns, especially regarding personal data protection.
• Transparency:  To ensure wide participation and trust, transparency in processes and data handling protocols will be critical.
• Logistical Challenge: The Census will cover every household in India, making it one of the largest administrative exercises in the world.
• Further Details Awaited:  More logistical details and modalities are expected to be announced soon, as part of ongoing preparations.

Implications of Upcoming Census

• Demographic Challenge: India faces simultaneous demographic pressures, a growing youth population alongside a rising elderly cohort, posing unique developmental challenges.
• Regional Disparities:  There are significant regional variations in key demographic and socio-economic indicators, necessitating localized planning and data-driven policymaking.
• Caste Census: For the first time since 1931, the Census will include caste categories, aimed at providing reliable data on the socio-economic status of various caste groups.
  • While this data may aid in targeted development planning, it also carries the risk of reinforcing social segmentation and political divisions.
• Constitutional Mandate :  According to the Constitution, the next inter-State delimitation of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies will be based on the first Census conducted after 2026.
• Current Distribution:  As of now, the Lok Sabha seat distribution follows the 1971 population spread, ignoring subsequent demographic changes.
• Reference Date:  With the new Census reference date set as March 1, 2027, it may trigger the next delimitation process, impacting representation across States.
• Concerns from Peninsular States: States with lower population growth, especially in the South, fear reduced parliamentary representation if population becomes the sole criterion.
• Unclear: The Union Government has not yet articulated its position on how delimitation will be handled post-Census.
• Consensus: Given the sensitive nature of the issue, it is imperative that the Centre builds consensus through dialogue with States and stakeholders.

Conclusion

Delays in the Census announcement are being viewed as an attempt to benefit the ruling BJP, especially by enhancing representation of Hindi-speaking States.  To maintain public trust, the Census and delimitation processes must remain transparent, inclusive, and free from political bias.