In September 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended a significant Quad meeting in the United States with Australia, Japan, and the U.S.

• This meeting is considered the most important to date, with discussions indicating a move towards a security alliance, despite India’s insistence that it remains a cooperative framework. 
• The dialogue aimed at countering China’s influence without explicitly naming it. Currently, India appears to be more aligned with the U.S. in addressing concerns related to China through initiatives like the Quad.

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India-China Relations

• Deteriorating Relations: The relationship between India and China is deteriorating, marked by a stalemate at the Galwan region and unresolved disengagement in the Depsang Plains and Demchok. 
  • Rising tensions in Ladakh have led to a halt in Indian military patrols, creating a delicate and sensitive situation in the region.
• India’s Military Response: India is enhancing its military presence along the border by increasing vigilance and deploying long-range firearms, heavy artillery, howitzers, missiles, and rocket systems to bolster defence capabilities.
• China’s Position: China remains largely unfazed by India’s actions, exhibiting confidence due to its larger defence budget. This has manifested as an increasingly arrogant approach.
  • Historically, China has relied on the element of surprise; its unexpected attack on India in 1962 exemplifies this. Thus, India needs to remain vigilant and proactive.
• Change in Leadership: Under Xi Jinping, China has adopted a more assertive approach towards its neighbours, departing from Deng Xiaoping’s policies. 
  • Xi has warned against external forces attempting to bully China, reflecting a rise in aggressive nationalism.

India’s Strategic Dilemma

• China’s Perception: China does not see border issues with India as a significant threat, viewing India’s claims as outdated. Instead, it takes threats to its eastern seaboard and Pacific claims seriously, especially from the U.S. and its allies.
• Cautious Approach: India must exercise caution in its dealings with both China and its Quad partners, as its stronger alignment with the Quad is perceived by China as antagonistic.
• Alignment Risks: There is a risk for India in aligning too closely with nations that are openly hostile to China.

Recommendations for India

• Avoid Wrong Signals: Ensure communication and actions do not send misleading signals that could lead to unintended consequences.
• Refrain from Confrontation: Avoid confrontational politics with China to de-escalate tensions.  
• Maintain Balance: Strike a balance between opposing extremes—rejecting Xi’s vision of a ‘community of shared future for mankind’ while not fully aligning with the West’s view that China’s rise is harmful to global interests.
• Focus on Strategic Autonomy: Make decisions based on India’s national interests and strategic autonomy rather than external pressures.

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Conclusion

In navigating its complex relationship with China and the Quad, India must balance strategic autonomy with proactive diplomacy. By fostering constructive dialogue and avoiding confrontational tactics, India can safeguard its interests while promoting regional stability.

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