Pakistan today is performing a delicate diplomatic tightrope walk, seeking to maintain close ties with both China and the United States—two rival global powers whose strategic interests often conflict.

Pakistan–China Relationship

• Strategic Alignment: China is Pakistan’s permanent and non-negotiable partner due to shared rivalry with India.
• Military and Security Support: China supplies modern military equipment and satellite intelligence.
• Diplomatic Shield at the UN: China uses its veto power to protect Pakistan on terrorism and Kashmir issues.
• Economic Lifeline (through China–Pakistan Economic Corridor): China has invested more than seventy billion dollars in highways, power plants and ports.
• Debt Dependency: Pakistan owes a major share of its external debt to China, making the relationship asymmetric.

Pakistan–United States Relationship

• Historically Utility Based: The United States aligns with Pakistan only when it needs Pakistan geopolitically.
• Cold War Partnership: Pakistan joined Western alliances such as the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO).
• War on Terror Relevance:  Pakistan gained importance post-2001 as a frontline ally in Afghanistan.
• Breakdown under Trump: The United States accused Pakistan of “lies and deceit” and cut aid.
• Transactional Foreign Policy Today: The current United States approach is based only on “what can Pakistan offer”.

Pakistan’s Double Game

• Pasni Port Offer to the United States: Pakistan secretly offered the Pasni Port to counterbalance China’s presence near Gwadar and enable United States monitoring of Iran.
• Bagram Airbase Signal: Pakistan indicates it can facilitate United States return to the Bagram Airbase despite being part of a grouping that rejects foreign military bases.

Reasons for Actions of Pakistan

• Economic Collapse: Pakistan is facing severe economic distress, with critically low foreign reserves and high inflation.
• Dependence on External Bailouts: Pakistan has repeatedly relied on the International Monetary Fund for bailouts instead of strengthening domestic economic capacity.
• Renting Geography: Pakistan attempts to monetise its location because it lacks strong export or trade capacity.
  • For China, the location offers an alternate route bypassing the Malacca Strait.
  • For the United States, the location offers strategic access to Afghanistan and surveillance over Iran.

Possible Consequences of Pakistan Actions

• Internal Security Risk: Baloch nationalist groups attack foreign projects because they view them as exploitation and marginalisation of local communities.
  • If both China and the United States become active in Balochistan, the region may turn into a battleground for great power rivalry.
• China’s Possible Retaliation: China may reduce China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) investments and withdraw diplomatic support at the United Nations if it perceives betrayal.
• United States Counter Move: The United States may suspend financial and military support if it detects double dealing by Pakistan.
• Loss of Both Partners: By trying to play both sides, Pakistan risks losing trust and support from both major powers.

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Opportunities for India

• Enhanced Strategic Role of Chabahar Port: The Chabahar Port becomes more significant as a regional trade and logistics hub due to Pakistan’s double game.
• Weakening of Pakistan: Pakistan’s internal and external vulnerabilities could reduce its regional influence, creating strategic advantages for India.

Challenges for India

• Rekindled US–Pakistan Ties: Closer cooperation between Pakistan and the United States may limit India’s strategic maneuvering.
• Potential Chinese Aggression: Increased Chinese assertiveness in the region could pose security challenges for India.
• High-Intensity Maritime Risk: The presence of India (Chabahar), the United States (Pasni), and China (Gwadar) in a small maritime zone increases the possibility of maritime conflict.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s balancing act between China and the U.S. stems from economic compulsions but risks losing trust on both sides. For India, it creates strategic space yet demands vigilant diplomacy and maritime preparedness amid regional uncertainty.

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