The Syrian Civil War, ongoing since 2011, involves complex geopolitical dynamics between Assad’s regime, backed by Iran and Russia, and various rebel factions, causing immense humanitarian and regional instability.
Background
- In 2011, during the Arab Spring, widespread protests for democracy erupted in Syria, leading to violent repression by Bashar al-Assad’s government.
- The protests escalated into a civil war, with opposition groups emerging by September 2011.
- Despite failed international mediation, Assad consolidated power, controlling two-thirds of the country.
- Recently, however, anti-Assad rebels have made significant territorial gains, including capturing Aleppo and Hama, and advancing towards Damascus.
- The war has resulted in over 500,000 deaths and millions of displaced Syrians, severely impacting global geopolitics, particularly in Europe.
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Assad’s Allies
Assad’s regime has survived, in large part, due to support from two major allies:
- Iran:
- The Assad regime is part of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” which includes groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. This coalition aims to challenge Israel and diminish U.S. influence in the Middle East.
- Syria serves as a critical geographic link, allowing Iran to funnel weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. In return, both Iran and Hezbollah have provided significant military support to Assad during the civil war.
- Russia:
- Historically, Syria was aligned with the Soviet Union. Today, Vladimir Putin views Syria as essential to maintaining Russian influence in the Middle East.
- Russia has actively supported Assad by deploying planes, troops, and military advisers.
These alliances position Syria as a secondary, but important, player in the emerging geopolitical alliance involving China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
The Complicated Geopolitical Picture
The Syrian Civil War involves a web of conflicting interests:
- Assad’s Regime: Backed by Iran and Russia, Assad has benefited from their military and financial support.
- The Rebels: Divided among Islamist and nationalist factions, they are supported by Turkey but viewed with skepticism by the West due to their extremist origins.
- The U.S. and Europe: While opposing Assad’s brutality, Western nations view his primary opponents with concern, especially H.T.S., which they classify as a terrorist organization. This complex dynamic leaves unclear what the U.S. and its allies hope to achieve in Syria, especially since they did not object when Russia supported the regime. A rebel victory could empower Islamist factions, while Assad’s continued rule sustains a brutal dictatorship.
| Note: Syria’s population is 85 to 90 percent Sunni, while Assad’s regime represents a minority Alawite (Shia) sect. The initial protests and discontent stemmed from the Sunni majority’s dissatisfaction with the regime, and the lack of resistance from the people played a significant role in the conflict’s escalation. |
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Why the Rebels Have Gained Momentum
The recent rebel advances seem to be linked to a temporary weakening of Assad’s allies:
- Iran: Its focus has shifted to its ongoing conflict with Israel.
- Hezbollah: Weakened by its involvement in the Israel conflict, it has fewer resources to support Assad.
- Russia: Preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, it has less capacity to assist Assad militarily.
These distractions have created an opening for the rebels to strike.
Who Are the Rebels?
The opposition to Assad is fragmented, with two main factions leading the charge:
- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.):
- The largest rebel group, H.T.S. controls much of Syria’s northeast. Originally known as the Nusra Front, it was formed by jihadists to fight Assad’s forces through insurgent and suicide attacks.
- Initially linked to Al-Qaeda, H.T.S. has since distanced itself from the terrorist network and rebranded under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani as a more nationalist group focused on toppling Assad. Despite this shift, the U.S. continues to classify H.T.S. as a terrorist organization.
- Turkey-Backed Rebel Groups:
- These smaller factions operate near the Turkish border, supported by Turkey for strategic reasons.
- Turkey backs these groups to weaken Assad’s regime, gain leverage in negotiations regarding Syrian refugees in Turkey, and counter Kurdish-led militias, which it views as a threat to its own territorial security.
The geopolitical dynamics between the U.S.,Turkey, and the Kurds are shaped by competing interests in the Middle East.
- U.S. and Kurds: The U.S. has supported Kurdish forces, particularly in Syria. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which include many Kurdish fighters, have been instrumental allies to the U.S. in the region.
- However, U.S. support for Kurdish groups has strained relations with Turkey, which views some Kurdish factions as terrorist organizations due to their separatist ambitions in Turkey.
- Turkey’s Actions: As a result of its opposition to Kurdish separatism, Turkey has launched military strikes against Kurdish positions, particularly targeting forces in northern Syria and Iraq. Turkey’s concerns are rooted in the fear that Kurdish autonomy could fuel separatist movements within its own borders.
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What’s Next for Syria?
- The future of Syria remains uncertain. Recent rebel gains mark a new phase in the conflict, but whether these advances lead to meaningful change or further bloodshed is unclear.
- There is a growing fear that removing Assad could result in a situation similar to Libya after Gaddafi’s fall or Iraq after Saddam Hussein’s regime ended—both countries have faced instability, weak economies, and ongoing violence after authoritarian rule was dismantled.
- Meanwhile, the humanitarian toll on Syrian civilians continues to rise, with no resolution in sight. The global response to this ongoing crisis will likely play a significant role in shaping the Middle East’s future and global stability for years to come.
December 9, 2024
