Israel-Iran Strike & the Rise of the Third Nuclear Age

Recently Israel bombed Iran’s state TV building. This action was claimed as an act against the nuclear threat posed by Iran.

Violations and Global Response

• Breach of Norms and Law: The bombing contravenes diplomatic norms, tests international law to breaking point, and goes against the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which aims to control proliferation through negotiations and treaty obligations.
• International Silence: Despite these violations, global silence indicates a changing nuclear mindset.

The First Nuclear Age (1945-1991)

• Cold War & MAD: This era was primarily defined by the Cold War and its terrifying bipolar logic of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
• Superpower Arsenals: It was marked by US-USSR rivalry with high nuclear stockpiles, reaching approximately 70,000 warheads.
• Role of MAD: Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) maintained peace via fear.
• Arms Control Efforts: Treaties like the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and New START aimed at arms control.
• New START Limits: New START limited deployed warheads to 1,550 each.
• Expiration: This age ends in 2026 with no successor treaty.

The Second Nuclear Age

• Global Zero” Movement: This period was marked by post-Cold War optimism with the “Global Zero” movement.
• Obama’s Vision: Obama advocated for a nuclear-free world and won the Nobel Peace Prize in part for his efforts, though he was quick to caveat his 2009 speech by saying it might not happen in his lifetime.
• Dominance: Despite disarmament rhetoric, nuclear states retained dominance, solidified by the extension of the NPT in perpetuity.
• Unfulfilled NPT Article 6: Article 6 of the NPT, which called on nuclear possessors to “pursue negotiations in good faith” to achieve nuclear disarmament, remained unfulfilled.
• Arsenal Expansion: Instead, major states expanded their arsenals.
• India-Pakistan Nuclear Tests: India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in 1998, which did little to change the idea that nuclear use was beyond the pale.
• U.S. Modernization Program: The US began a $1.5-2 trillion nuclear modernization program.
• Unilateral Nuclear Ban Treaty: The Nuclear Ban Treaty (2017) was negotiated but was unsupported by Nuclear Weapon States (NWS)

Third Nuclear Age

• Return to Strategy: Nuclear weapons are back in global strategy.
• Unstable Global Order: The global order is unstable; deterrence rules are changing.
• China’s Nuclear Expansion: China is expanding its arsenal, estimated at 600+ warheads. This expansion seeks to provide a strategic counterbalance.
• Threats in Ukraine War: Russia issued nuclear threats during the Ukraine war, indicating a willingness to escalate
• Britain & France’s Efforts: Britain & France are actively modernizing their deterrents.
• UK Investment: The UK is specifically investing £15 billion in its nuclear capabilities.
• Tactical Nukes: Tactical nukes are gaining relevance in strategic considerations.
• Belarus Deployment: Belarus has received tactical nuclear weapons from Russia.
• Lowered Threshold for Use: This development raises the risk of a lower threshold for battlefield nuclear use.
• Earlier Doctrine: Nuclear use was previously seen as the final option, a last resort.
• Current Perception: Nuclear weapons are now seen as a tool for changing the status quo, indicating a shift in their perceived utility.
• Eroding Norms: The established norms of deterrence are eroding.
• Global Insecurity: Global insecurity is rising as a direct consequence of these changes.
• Escalatory Doctrines: Leaders are increasingly hinting at first use or escalatory doctrines, further destabilizing the nuclear landscape.
• Eroding Restraint in Deterrence: Deterrence is losing moral and strategic restraint, indicating a shift in how nuclear weapons are viewed and potentially used.
• Unstable Nuclear Dynamics: The world is witnessing emerging multipolarity with inherently unstable nuclear dynamics.
• Contributors to Imbalance: The USA’s retreat, coupled with China and Russia’s assertiveness, further adds to this global imbalance.
• India-Pakistan Implications: Potential India-Pakistan implications are now openly acknowledged by leaders, underscoring the regional nuclear risks.

Conclusion

Despite current tensions, the third nuclear age also presents an opportunity to reimagine global nuclear governance. Renewed multilateral dialogue, inclusive of emerging powers, can revitalise disarmament efforts.