China and Russia are strategically attempting to weaken the United States’ global alliances, particularly in Eurasia since the US President, Donal Trump’s announcement on tariffs.

Ancient Strategy in a Modern World

• Mitra-bhedam: The concept of Mitra-bhedam, meaning the separation of your adversary from its ally, is one of the oldest principles of strategy in the Indian classic Panchatantra. 
• Mitra-bhedam in Contemporary Times: Today, Moscow and Beijing are attempting to apply this principle by driving a wedge between the United States and its allies in Eurasia.
• Limited Success: However, their success has been limited due to the deeply rooted structure of U.S. alliances in Europe and Asia. The United States continues to be a dominant global power, and its alliances serve as significant force multipliers.

Opportunities With Russia and China in Europe and Asia

• Europe’s Dilemma (Trump’s Attack): Several developments have caused friction between the U.S. and Europe, including Trump’s threat to withdraw troops from Europe, Trump’s consistent attack on US military allies as “free riders” and his unusual interest in purchasing Greenland, a Danish territory. 
• Russia’s Opportunity in Europe: In Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin sees a rare opportunity to improve relations with the U.S. under Trump, potentially at the expense of European allies.
• China’s Opportunity in Europe: Despite warnings from U.S. officials about the risks of aligning with China, European leaders continue to pursue deeper engagement with Beijing, even as they grapple with a $340 billion trade deficit with China.
  • Defending Globalisation: President Xi Jinping told Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánche in Beijing that China and the EU must come together to resist America’s “unilateral acts of bullying.”

• China’s Strategic Outreach in Asia: China is simultaneously strengthening ties with neighboring Asian countries.
  • Building Regional Support: President Xi Jinping’s visits to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia reflect a deliberate effort to bolster regional relationships in anticipation of prolonged tensions with Washington.

• • Relations with Other US Allies: China has also sought to improve relations with key U.S. allies, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.
  • Increasing Regional Influence: China’s leadership has prioritized neighborhood diplomacy in recent years. President Xi recently emphasized the importance of “seeking common ground and shelving differences” in relationships with neighboring states.

Chinese Economic Diplomacy and Trade Imbalances

• Outreach to Vietnam and ASEAN: During a recent visit to Vietnam, President Xi called for stronger economic cooperation and warned against trade wars. However, trade figures paint a different picture.
  • In 2024, China’s trade surplus with Vietnam reached $85 billion. The ten-member ASEAN bloc also ran a $200 billion trade deficit with China, raising doubts about Beijing’s commitment to equitable trade relationships.
• Southeast Asia’s Economic Balancing Act: While Southeast Asia maintains significant trade ties with China, it also benefits from large trade surpluses with the United States. Vietnam, for example, enjoys a $120 billion surplus with the U.S. 
  • Similarly, ASEAN’s trade surplus with the U.S. also stands at around $200 billion. 
  • India follows a similar pattern, with a $100 billion deficit with China but a $45 billion surplus with the U.S.

China’s Limitations in Replacing the U.S.

• Rhetoric vs. Reality: China’s ambitions to lead the global economic order face skepticism, especially when compared with actual trade imbalances. While China promotes slogans like “a community of common destiny,” many Asian nations remain wary of overdependence on Beijing.
  • Despite Trump’s accusations that China and Vietnam are exploiting the U.S., most Asian countries are eager to maintain market access to the U.S. and avoid American tariffs.
• Continuing Appeal of U.S. Trade: Asian trade ministers are increasingly seeking new agreements with Washington. While China aspires to weaken U.S. influence in the region, it has yet to succeed. A more open Chinese market could help balance global trade, but until then, many Asian economies will prioritize their economic ties with the United States.

Conclusion

Despite efforts by China and Russia to erode U.S. alliances, deep-rooted strategic and economic ties with the United States remain strong across much of Eurasia. While China’s outreach is gaining ground, trade imbalances and geopolitical concerns continue to limit its ability to replace the U.S. as the region’s central partner.

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