On The State Of India-China Ties

India’s decision to restart issuing tourist visas for Chinese nationals is a strong signal that diplomacy over restoring ties torn apart by the LAC military standoff and Galwan clash of 2020 is moving smoothly.

A Troubled Recent History

• Galwan Valley Clash: Relations plummeted in June 2020 following a violent clash in the Galwan Valley, where over 20 Indian soldiers were killed. 
• Chinese Incursions Along the LAC: This incident saw Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops advancing into Indian territory at seven points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
• India’s Military Response: India responded with a mirrored troop deployment, significantly escalating military tensions. 
• Economic Countermeasures by India: In the aftermath, India implemented restrictions on Chinese investments and applications. India’s position, as stated by the Prime Minister, was clear: trade and other engagements could not proceed without peace on the border.

Steps Towards Normalisation and Functional Dialogue

Following the peak of tensions, both countries engaged in diplomatic and military dialogues aimed at disengagement. Recent measures underscore a cautious move towards normalisation:

• Pilgrimage Resumption: China permitted the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra last month, which had been previously banned.
• Visa Issuance: India has decided to grant tourism visas to Chinese nationals, signalling a desire for improved relations.
• Direct Flights: Both nations have agreed in principle to resume direct flights.
• Journalist Visas: There is an expectation that India will grant visas to Chinese journalists, reciprocated by China for Indian journalists.
• Joint Dialogue: A joint statement was issued, indicating an agreement for functional dialogue on certain issues.

Specific economic concerns are on the table for discussion

• Chinese Investment: China expresses concern over India’s restrictions on Chinese investment.
• Critical Minerals and Fertilisers: India is significantly impacted by China’s ban on the export of critical minerals and fertilisers to India. 
  • These critical minerals are vital for India’s defence, automobile, and electronics industries, and their scarcity has led to concerns from Japanese and South Korean automotive companies operating in India.

Mechanisms for Border Dispute Resolution

• Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC): It is a dedicated diplomatic platform between India and China to facilitate dialogue on the border dispute.
  • Since the last Modi–Xi meeting, WMCC has convened three times.
  • These meetings lay the groundwork for higher-level discussions between Special Representatives appointed to resolve the boundary issue.
• India’s Concerns Over China’s Dam on the Sangpo (Brahmaputra): China is building a large dam on the Sangpo River (Brahmaputra in India), raising alarm in India.
  • Key concerns include: Reduced water availability downstream, Potential ecological damage, Increased flood risks.
  • China’s Foreign Ministry has acknowledged these concerns and expressed willingness to discuss them.

Challenges in the Narrative of Border Normalisation

Despite diplomatic engagements, the claim that the border is “calm” is misleading. Disengagement has occurred in certain areas, but:

• Troop deployments by both sides along the LAC remain unusually high,
• Military infrastructure built during the 2020 standoff still exists.
• These facts undermine the perception of genuine normalisation and reflect deep-seated mistrust.

Fundamental questions remain unaddressed

• Root Causes: There has been no clear explanation or resolution regarding why Chinese troops advanced at the seven points in the first place.
• Future Guarantees: There is no guarantee that Chinese forces will not advance again in the future.
• Superficiality: Critics argue that the current normalisation addresses only the symptoms, such as visas and travel, rather than the root causes of the border dispute.
• Trust Deficit: The creation of mechanisms alone does not foster peace or trust; these are built through concrete actions and transparency. The lack of transparency surrounding the Galwan Valley incident further exacerbates the trust deficit.

Conclusion

While recent diplomatic engagements suggest a thaw in India-China relations, the underlying complexities of the border dispute, coupled with unresolved issues and a lack of transparency, indicate that a comprehensive and stable normalisation remains a distant goal.