Multipolarity and the Changing World Order: US–China Rivalry & India

GS II: Bilateral, regional, and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Context: The global order is witnessing intensifying US–China strategic competition, challenging assumptions about a smooth transition towards multipolarity and creating a more fluid balance among major powers. 

Multipolarity and the Changing World Order

• Multipolarity: A global system with multiple significant centres of power, unlike bipolarity, where two dominant powers largely shape international affairs.
• India’s Preference: India has traditionally supported a multipolar and reformed international order that provides greater strategic space to middle and emerging powers.
• Great-Power Politics: According to Raja Mohan, institutions such as BRICS, G20, G7 and APEC provide platforms for cooperation, but their effectiveness remains influenced by underlying great-power competition.
• Economic Power: Economic size, technology, capital, energy and control over critical supply chains increasingly influence geopolitical power and strategic outcomes.

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The Emerging G2 Dynamic

• US–China Competition: The United States and China increasingly constitute the central axis of global economic and strategic competition, particularly across trade, technology, finance and security.
• Economic Interdependence: Despite strategic rivalry, deep economic interdependence creates incentives for both countries to manage competition and avoid uncontrolled escalation.
• Thucydides Trap: The concept describes the risk of conflict when an emerging power challenges an established power, although it does not imply that war is inevitable.
• Strategic Constraints: Taiwan, technology restrictions, trade imbalances and security competition continue to complicate the possibility of a stable US–China accommodation.

Russia and the Possibility of a G3

• Russian Capabilities: Russia retains significant military capabilities, geographical reach and energy resources, giving it continuing strategic relevance.
• US–Russia Engagement: Any major accommodation between Washington and Moscow could influence the balance of power surrounding Europe, Ukraine and wider Eurasian security.
• China–Russia Alignment: Russia’s growing strategic dependence on China has implications for India’s traditional relationship with Moscow.
• Fluid Order: The international system may therefore evolve through overlapping G2, G3 and wider coalitional arrangements, rather than a simple transition to multipolarity.

Limits of Multilateral Institutions

• BRICS: BRICS has expanded considerably and provides a platform for Global South cooperation, but its members have divergent strategic and economic interests.
• G20: Its broad membership makes it an important forum for global economic coordination, but US–China disagreements can constrain consensus.
• Institutional Paralysis: Great-power rivalry can spill over into international institutions, making consensus-building on trade, finance, security and global governance reforms more difficult.
• Strategic Autonomy: India therefore needs to use multilateral institutions as instruments of national interest and strategic flexibility, rather than treating any single grouping as the foundation of the world order.

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Implications for India

• Strategic Autonomy: India must maintain the ability to engage simultaneously with the US, China, Russia, Europe, Japan, West Asia and the Global South.
• Multiple Partnerships: Flexible partnerships can help India diversify its economic, technological, defence and diplomatic options.
• China Factor: India’s engagement with China requires a combination of competition, dialogue and risk management, particularly given economic interdependence and unresolved security concerns.
• BRICS Engagement: India can continue using BRICS for Global South cooperation and institutional reform without assuming that it will independently reshape the global balance of power.

Way Forward

• Pragmatic Multilateralism: India should combine its support for multipolarity with realistic assessment of great-power capabilities.
• Issue-Based Coalitions: Build flexible coalitions around technology, critical minerals, maritime security, climate, connectivity and supply chains.
• Strategic Diversification: Reduce excessive dependence on any single country while deepening partnerships across multiple regions.
• Institutional Reform: Continue advocating UN Security Council reform and greater representation of developing countries in global institutions.
• National Capability: Strengthen India’s own economic, technological, military and manufacturing capabilities, which ultimately determine the country’s ability to exercise strategic autonomy.

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Conclusion

India’s multipolar vision requires strategic flexibility, diversified partnerships and stronger national capabilities to navigate an increasingly competitive and fluid global order. 

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