Context

Chinese President Xi Jinping in Europe highlights China’s bold play to exploit the divisions within Europe and across the Atlantic with the United States.

Xi Jinping in Europe and Europe’s Power Struggles: Navigating US, Russia, and Beijing

• Europe’s Power Dynamics: Chinese president’s visit to Europe further highlights Europe’s challenges in managing the power dynamics among the US, Russia, and China.
• Europe’s Tight Spot: Europe finds itself increasingly cornered by the possibility of Trump’s return to power in Washington, Russia’s heightened military assertiveness in Ukraine, and the mounting economic pressures from Beijing.
• Addressing Challenges from US, Russia, China: France warned that Europe could well die if it does not get its act together in addressing the range of challenges presented by the US, Russia and China. 

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China’s Diplomatic Maneuvers in Europe: Balancing Power, Investment, and Trade

• Visit Amid Spying Scandal: Chinese president’s visit to Europe after five years amid a spying scandal points to the growing Chinese penetration of the European ruling caste. 
• Chinese EV Dumping: Even more important is the European investigation into the Chinese dumping of electric vehicles and the prospect of major sanctions against China’s EV makers.
• China’s Efforts to Prevent Trade Escalation: The Chinese Premier on his part, is eager to persuade the Europeans not to escalate the trade war with China and reverse the declared strategy of “de-risking” the economic relationship with Beijing. 
  • China has economic carrots to offer, in the form of investments.  
• China’s Influence in Hungary and Serbia: In Hungary, President Viktor Orban, a China ally, will highlight Beijing’s proposal to establish an electric vehicle factory, potentially undercutting Europe’s aspirations for indigenous industry development. China is already a significant investor in the Serbian economy.
• Attracting Chinese investments by France: France too is eager to attract Chinese investments and insists that it will not participate in the attempted isolation of China by the US.
• European Strategic Autonomy: Prior to Chinese premier Visit, Macron Reiterates European Strategic Autonomy, Positions Europe as Balancing Power between US and China.

China’s Support for Russia

• Europe’s Concern: Despite China’s Economic Value and Global Role in Addressing Climate Change, Xi’s Backing of Putin’s Ukraine Invasion Raises Concern in Europe.
• Destabilization of Central Europe: As Russia transitions from a defensive stance in eastern Ukraine to a more aggressive posture, concerns mount over Putin’s potential to destabilize Central Europe.
• Shift of stance by France: France sought to stop the war in Ukraine in early 2022 by reaching out to Russia, arguing that Russia is a natural part of European security architecture and should not be isolated. 
  • Today, France affirms that Russia  poses the biggest threat to Europe’s future.
• Proposal by France: France  has also floated the idea that Europe should be prepared to send troops into Ukraine to stop further advances by Russia’s  armies. 
  • But it has met much resistance across Europe, including from Germany, which has no desire to put boots on the ground in Ukraine.  
• China’s  Role in Ukraine Peace Talks: Some in Europe believe China is the sole world power  capable of influencing Russia’s approach to Ukraine. They eagerly anticipate the Chinese premiere’s  attendance at the Ukraine Peace Conference, scheduled by Switzerland for June this year.
• Highlighting European Divisions: China’s bonhomie with the leaders in Hungary and Serbia will at once underline the divisions in Europe and the extent of support for the Sino-Russian alliance

India’s Geopolitical Challenge: Navigating Europe’s Decisions with US, Russia, and China

• Impact on India’s Geopolitical Relations: Irrespective of its eventual choice, Europe’s response to its geopolitical trilemma will have major consequences for India’s relations with the US, Russia, and China.
• Europe’s Security Dynamics: Europe sees Russia as the principal threat and China as an opportunity and is under pressure from the US to share a greater part of the defense burden in Europe against Russia and contribute to Asian security by boosting the US balancing effort against China. 
• India’s Geopolitical Perspective: India  sees Beijing as its primary challenge, while viewing Moscow as part of the solution. 

Way Forward

• India’’s Engagement with Europe: If India aims to avoid being merely affected by significant shifts in relations between Washington, Brussels, Moscow, and Beijing, it must enhance its involvement with Europe.
  • This should involve a heightened emphasis on addressing trade and security issues such as Ukraine. In recent years, India has moved away from its historical neglect of Europe.
• India’s European Outreach: India has expanded its engagement with individual European powers such as France, sub-regional groups like the Nordics, smaller economic groups like EFTA, and the European Union. However, Delhi has yet to fully explore India’s strategic potential in Europe.

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Conclusion

As India expands its footprint in Europe, it must remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding its interests while contributing to global stability and cooperation.

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