Rising fertiliser prices and forecasts of a weak monsoon have intensified concerns over India’s agricultural productivity and food security ahead of the Kharif 2026 season.
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Key Concerns Regarding India’s Agricultural Sector
- Fertiliser Supply and Price Shock: India’s fertiliser imports and domestic production have been disrupted due to tensions in West Asia and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Urea import prices nearly doubled, while DAP prices rose sharply, increasing subsidy burdens on the government.
- Domestic urea production declined significantly in March 2026, affecting Kharif preparedness.
- Weakening Monsoon Risks: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall at 92% of Long Period Average (LPA).
- Expected El Niño conditions may reduce rainfall during the crucial crop growth period.
- Rain-fed crops such as paddy, pulses, cotton and oilseeds remain highly vulnerable to rainfall variability.
- Pressure on Food Security and Inflation: Rising fertiliser costs and weak agricultural output may increase food inflation and affect rural incomes.
- Lower crop yields could adversely impact India’s progress towards Sustainable Development Goal-2 (Zero Hunger).
- Supply shortages may lead farmers to reduce fertilizer use, affecting productivity and foodgrain availability.
- Rising Fiscal Burden: The fertiliser subsidy mechanism transfers global price shocks onto government finances.
- The fertiliser subsidy bill already exceeded revised estimates before the Gulf crisis intensified.
- Continued import dependence may strain fiscal stability if geopolitical tensions persist.
Factors Causing the Distress
- Dependence on Imported Fertilisers and LNG: India depends heavily on Gulf countries for LNG and fertiliser imports, especially urea and DAP.
- Natural gas is the primary feedstock for urea production, making domestic output vulnerable to energy disruptions.
- Strait of Hormuz Disruption: The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global maritime chokepoint through which nearly one-third of global fertilizer trade passes.
- Restricted movement increased transportation costs, delayed supplies and raised global fertiliser prices.
- Climate Variability and El Niño: Increasing frequency of El Niño events has intensified monsoon uncertainty.
- Climate change has increased the frequency of extreme weather events, affecting sowing cycles and crop yields.
- Structural Dependence on Urea-intensive Agriculture: Indian agriculture remains highly dependent on chemical fertilisers and water-intensive crops.
- Imbalanced fertilizer usage and monocropping patterns have increased ecological and economic vulnerabilities.
Way Forward
- Promote Sustainable and Balanced Agriculture: Encourage nano-urea, biofertilisers and organic farming to reduce excessive dependence on imported fertilisers.
- Promote crop diversification towards less water-intensive and climate-resilient crops.
- Strengthen Domestic Capacity and Supply Chains: Expand domestic fertiliser production capacity and diversify import sources beyond the Gulf region.
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- Build strategic reserves for critical agricultural inputs and improve logistics resilience.
- Improve Climate Resilience: Expand irrigation infrastructure, micro-irrigation and climate-smart agricultural practices.
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- Strengthen weather forecasting, crop insurance and farmer advisory systems for risk mitigation.
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Conclusion
India must combine climate-resilient agriculture, fertiliser self-reliance and sustainable farming reforms to safeguard food security and rural livelihoods from future shocks.
23 May 2026
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