On The Importance Of The India-Russia Partnership

Relevancy for Mains: Significance of PM Modi’s Visit, Concerns, Economic Impact During Russia Ukraine War , Russia Ukraine War: Impacts on India  , Strong Geopolitical Message  , etc.

Economic Impact During Russia Ukraine War

• Global Inflation in Food and Energy Markets: The war has disrupted global supply chains, particularly for wheat, oil, and gas, contributing to global inflation and supply chain challenges​​​​.
• Sanctions and Economic Disruptions: Sanctions against Russia and the damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure have further strained global economic stability.
• Loss to Ukraine: Ukraine’s economic output is now at a fraction of its pre-war levels. In the first year of the conflict, the country lost 30-35% of GDP leading to largest recession in Ukraine.
  • Its GDP is projected to grow in 2023, if only by 0.5%.
  • Poverty in Ukraine has soared from 5.5% of the population to 24.2% in 2022, according to the World Bank, pushing 7.1 million more people into poverty.
• Food Security: Ukraine and Russia were the biggest producers in agriculture and food globally. War between these nations has caused issues of food security globally.
• Loss to Russia: Russia’s economy contracted by 1.2% last year and €300 billion of Russian Central Bank reserves are blocked in the EU, other G7 countries.
  • Around €20 billion of assets of more than 1,500 sanctioned persons and entities have been frozen.

Russia Ukraine War: Impacts on India 

• Shortages of food, fuel and fertilizers:  India has been worried about its fallout on defence deliveries and spares from Russia. 
  • While an attempt to “Make in India” has made headway (Russian assault rifles and the India-Russia BrahMos missile), concerns over the reliability of supplies and the payments issue will need discussion.
• India’s Balanced Relations: Indian policymakers walked on a diplomatic tightrope in balancing the relationship with the West and Russia. They did not join the chorus of condemnation of Russia which paid dividends while evacuating students from Ukraine.
• Access to Russian Crude Oil: India’s practical positions highlighting national interest ensured availability of Russian crude oil and helped contain price shocks.
• Growing interest in the Indo-Pacific and the Quad: There has been a growing pivot towards focus on Indi-Pacific security. This has put India in a strategic position to be a “Net Security Provider”.
• Strengthening China-Russia Relations: Closer Russia-China relations becomes a new challenge for Indian diplomacy.

Q. Critically analyse the current state of India-Russia relations, considering recent developments in global geopolitics, economic partnerships, and defence cooperation. (15 Marks, 250 Words)