Iran-Israel Tensions: Recent Developments and Strategic Realities

Context

Recent developments in the Middle East have highlighted escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, marked by an unprecedented direct attack by Iran on Israel and subsequent responses.

Views of Benjamin Netanyahu on Iran-Israel Tensions

• Assertion by Netanyahu: In March 2018, Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview that Iran is the greatest threat Israel was facing. 
• Opposition to Iran Nuclear Deal: Netanyahu’s opposed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, brokered by the Obama administration and unilaterally destroyed by Donald Trump. 
• Projecting Tough Leadership: He projected himself, to both his voters at home and allies abroad, as a tough leader who could stand up to the Iran threat.
• Iran’s Aggression: It  was on Mr. Netanyahu’s watch that Iran launched a massive barrage of drones and missiles on Israel on April 14.

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Iran-Israel Tensions: Iran’s Direct Attack and Escalating Crisis in West Asia

• Iran’s Direct Attack on Israel: Iran crossed a red line when it launched a direct attack on Israel. It shattered the Jewish nation’s deterrence. 
• US Influence on Israel: The United States still reigned Israel in and Israel’s response to the Iran attack was very weak.
• Escalating Crisis: After the first round, the multi-dimensional crisis reinforces Iran’s growing risk appetite in an increasingly volatile and violent West Asia.

Biden’s Approach to Iran-Israel Tensions: Balancing Support and Diplomacy

• Preventing Israel-Hamas Escalation: Ever since Hamas’s attack on Israel, the Biden administration’s focus has been on preventing the Israel-Hamas conflict from escalating into a regional war.
• US- Intercept Averts Israeli Disaster: U.S. and its allies helped intercept “99%” of Iranian projectiles, averting a disaster on Israeli soil. 
• Balancing Act of Biden: President Joe Biden offered his full support for Israel’s military operation in Gaza, but at the same time unleashed a diplomatic initiative to keep tensions low between Israel and its neighbors.
• Challenges to Biden’s Approach: While the Biden administration successfully kept Israel-Arab ties stable, Washington had little leverage over Iran. 
• Israeli Strike Raises Risk of Regional Conflict: When Israel bombed the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus on April 1, 2024, killing senior Revolutionary Guard officers, this became a plausible scenario. 
• US Intelligence Leaked: The U.S. knew Iran would retaliate and had leaked its intelligence to the press. 
  • Mr. Biden realized that if Iran carried out a successful attack and Israel retaliated, it would lead to a regional war from which the U.S. could not stay out.
• US Priorities: A war with Iran and its proxies is not in America’s interests. The U.S. has other immediate strategic priorities, in Eastern Europe and in the Indo-Pacific.
• No US Support for Israeli Retaliation: Mr. Biden told Mr. Netanyahu that the U.S. would not participate in any Israeli retaliation against Iran. 

Netanyahu’s Dilemma: Escalating Israel-Iran Shadow War and Strategic Realities

• Israel-Iran Shadow War:  A shadow war has been going on between Israel and Iran for years. In recent years, Israel has carried out over 400 air strikes in Syria alone, targeting Iranian interests. 
  • It has also carried out operations inside Iran, including the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a senior nuclear scientist, in November 2020.
• Erosion of Israel’s Deterrence: These operations were relatively cost-free as Iran never responded forcefully, emboldening Israel further. In other words, Israel kept drilling tiny holes into Iran’s deterrence.
• Israel Escalates Shadow War with Strikes in Syria: After October 7, Israel has stepped up this shadow war. 
  • On December 25, it killed Sayyed Razi Mousavi, a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser, in a strike in Syria. Once again, Iran’s response was muted. 
  • When the Israelis got the intelligence that Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a top IRGC commander, was present in the embassy compound in Damascus, Israel went ahead with the strike.
  • Israeli officials later told American media that they did not expect Iran to launch a direct attack when they carried out the Damascus strike.
• Favoring Force: Iran’s retaliation has left Mr. Netanyahu in a dilemma. He has always favoured force against Tehran. 
• Strategic Realities: The strategic reality in which Iran carried out its strike was not favorable to Mr. Netanyahu. While Mr. Netanyahu favored force against Iran, his plan has never been to fight Iran alone. 
• Israel’s Gaza Campaign: But Israel’s war in Gaza remained unfinished and it wanted Mr. Biden’s continued support in the offensive.
• Symbolic Strike: Mr. Netanyahu resorted to a largely symbolic strike inside Iran, targeting a radar system, according to the American media, and did not even claim the attack.
• Weak Deterrence: This was a rare victory for the Biden administration as it reined in its ally to avoid a regional war. But from an Israeli point of view, it was a weak response that did little to bolster its deterrence.

Iran’s Strategic Shifts: Responses to Israel and Changing Realities in West Asia

• Iran’s approach to its conflict with Israel: For years, Iran has shown strategic patience in its shadow war with Israel. That was also because Iran had taken a long-term view of its growing presence in the region.
• Israeli Strikes and Iranian Resilience: Iran has lost a host of senior officers and scientists in the shadow war, but the Israeli strikes have hardly scuttled Iran’s influence.
• Continuation of Iran’s nuclear program and proxy strength:Its nuclear programme continues to expand and its proxies continue to strengthen their muscles. 
• Shift in Iranian Strategy Post-Embassy Bombing:But the Israeli bombing on its embassy annex seems to have altered the strategic thinking in Tehran. After the attack, Iran has decided to impose a cost on Israel’s continuing strikes on its officials.
• Strategic considerations amidst global power dynamics: Iran today has better strategic ties with Russia and China.
  • While its relationship with China is largely economic, the strategic partnership with Russia is multilayered, especially after Iran started supplying drones to Russia to fight the Ukrainians.
• US War Aversion Amidst Global Power Shifts: Iran has also rightly assessed that the U.S. has a low appetite to get involved in another prolonged war in West Asia, at a time when China and Russia are directly challenging America’s leadership of the world.
• Israeli Objectives in Gaza: In West Asia, after six months of fighting Hamas, Israel is far from meeting its objectives, i.e., dismantling Hamas, releasing hostages and strengthening its deterrence.
• Consequences of Israel’s use of massive force in Gaza: Israel’s vengeful use of massive force on Gaza, which has destroyed northern and central Gaza, killed 34,000 people, and turned nearly the entire population of Gaza into refugees, has triggered an international uproar.
• Israel’s Weakness and Shifting U.S. Commitments: There is a genocide case against Israel in the International Court of Justice. 
  • Iran’s view was that the October 7 attack and the subsequent war on Gaza have substantially weakened the state of Israel in a region where the U.S. security commitments are no longer as “iron clad” as Washington claims it is.
• Missile Strikes Despite Collective Defense Efforts: This has allowed Iran to change the rules of the game by launching an open attack on Israel. And despite the collective defence of the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, Jordan and Israel, some Iranian ballistic missiles still hit Israel proper.
• Iran’s  Accurate Assessment: Israel’s meek response and its refusal to claim its attack, along with the call for restraint from its allies in the West, all suggest that Iran’s risk assessment was relatively accurate. 
• Iran’s Unprecedented Attacks: As of now, Iran is the only country in West Asia to have launched missile/drone attacks against the U.S. and two of its closest allies.
  • In 2019, drones attacked two Saudi oil facilities, knocking off half of the kingdom’s output for days;
  • In 2020, Iran launched 12 ballistic missiles at America’s As-Assad air base in Iraq in retaliation against the killing of General Qassem Soleimani.
• Shifting Strategic Realities in West Asia: On all three occasions, Iran walked free, or with a tap on its wrist, which speaks volumes of the new strategic reality of West Asia.

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Conclusion

It is imperative for the international community to encourage all stakeholders to abstain from violence and prioritize diplomatic dialogue for resolving conflicts. Adopting responsible and equitable strategies is crucial to mitigate long-term instability and address the crises in the region.

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