Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) Launched: India’s First High-Resolution Weather Model by IITM Pune

Recently  the Ministry of Earth Sciences unveiled the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS). 

• Commissioning Authority:  The model was officially handed over to the India Meteorological Department (IMD)  for operational use.

About Bharat Forecasting System (BFS)

• The BFS is the country’s first indigenously developed high-resolution weather forecasting model.
• Developed by:  Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.

Key Features of Bharat Forecasting System

• High Spatial Resolution: BFS offers a 6 km x 6 km spatial resolution, the highest among global weather models.
  • Efforts are underway to refine it further to 3 km and 1 km resolutions.
• Faster Processing Power: The model runs on the newly installed Arka supercomputer at IITM, which has a processing capacity of 11.77 petaflops and 33 petabytes of storage.
• Performance Efficiency: Arka reduces model run-time from 10 hours (earlier on the Pratyush supercomputer) to just 4 hours, enabling timely and efficient forecast generation.
• Use of Doppler Radars: BFS incorporates data from 40 Doppler Weather Radars across India. This network is to be expanded to 100 radars for comprehensive coverage.
• Geographical Scope: The model can provide forecasts for the tropical region extending from 30°S to 30°N, covering the entire Indian mainland.

Purpose and Applications of BFS

• Enhanced Forecast Accuracy: BFS significantly improves forecast accuracy for localised weather events by reducing the area unit from 144 sq km (12 km x 12 km) to 36 sq km (6 km x 6 km).
• Disaster Risk Reduction: High-resolution predictions help in early warnings for extreme weather events such as cyclones, flash floods, and intense rainfall.
• Support for Agriculture: Panchayat-level forecasts can support crop planning, irrigation management, and protection against climate shocks.

• Water Resource Management: Accurate rainfall predictions aid in reservoir management, flood control, and water distribution planning.
• Public Safety and Urban Planning: Real-time and localised forecasts improve preparedness and planning for civic bodies, disaster response teams, and urban administrators.
• Short-Term Nowcasts: BFS enables generation of nowcasts very short-range forecasts for the next two hours—critical for managing rapidly evolving weather systems.

Significance of the BFS

• Self-Reliance in Forecasting:  The BFS reduces dependence on foreign forecasting models and enhances India’s indigenous capability in weather science.
• Global Competitiveness:  While global models from Europe, the UK, and the US operate at 9–14 km resolution, BFS surpasses them with its 6 km grid forecast.
• Strategic Applications: Improved weather forecasting is expected to benefit sectors like aviation, defense operations, power generation, and transport logistics.

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