A Surge in Radical Governments, The Hope of Democracy

The recent rise of radical governments globally highlights a growing dissatisfaction with traditional political systems and a shift toward populism and far-right ideologies.

Taliban’s Rise to Power and India’s Strategic Move

• Consequences of U.S. Withdrawal: The U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan was marked by a deadly suicide bombing at Kabul airport, claiming the lives of 13 U.S. troops and numerous Afghan civilians. 
  • Adding to the chaos was the logistical failure of leaving $7.1 billion worth of U.S. military equipment behind, raising concerns about these resources being used to strengthen Taliban control.
• Engagement with the Taliban Regime: Despite the turbulent withdrawal, global powers—including the U.S., China, and Russia—quickly moved to engage with the Taliban’s new regime.
• Exclusion of India: The Troika Plus (U.S., China, Russia, and Pakistan) sought to marginalize India’s role in Afghanistan in the lead-up to the Taliban’s takeover. 
  • For instance, references to the Heart of Asia Conference on Afghanistan were removed from a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) draft statement due to India’s involvement.
• India’s Diplomatic Turnaround: Ironically, India assumed the presidency of the UNSC in August 2021, coinciding with the Taliban’s rise to power.
  •  India leveraged this position to influence UNSC Resolution 2593, emphasizing that Afghan soil must not be used for terrorist activities. 
  • The resolution explicitly mentioned terrorist organizations, including Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, both with links to Pakistan.
• Lack of Accountability: Despite India’s diplomatic success in pushing for UNSC Resolution 2593, global powers showed little political will to enforce its provisions.
  • This inaction allowed the Taliban to continue operating without significant accountability.

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Radicalism in Syria

• Rise of Abu Muhammad al-Jolani: Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, leader of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), has seized power in Syria, toppling President Bashar al-Assad. Al-Jolani, formerly associated with al Qaeda as the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, continues to have links with international terror networks. 
  • Despite HTS being listed as a terror group by the U.S. State Department, the U.S. and the West have recalibrated their stance, removing a $10 million bounty on al-Jolani’s capture.
• Global Implications: This development signals a troubling trend, as it sets a precedent where power acquisition can shield leaders of extremist groups from accountability.
  • Similar patterns are seen in parts of Africa, where groups in Mali and elsewhere adopt IS and al Qaeda tactics to destabilize governments.

Rise of Radicalism in Bangladesh

• Rise of Extremism: The collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s government has led to an interim military-led administration under Muhammad Yunus, which is seen as tolerating Islamic radical groups.
  • These groups, including Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Jamaat-e-Islami, have exploited the situation to promote extremist ideologies.
• Radical Groups Exploiting Instability: Groups such as ABT (affiliated with al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent), Islami Chhatra Shibir, Hefazat-e-Islam, and ISKP have intensified attacks on minority communities. 
  • The interim government has exacerbated the situation by releasing Islamic extremists from prison and adopting anti-India rhetoric, conflating the dismantling of Sheikh Hasina’s legacy with hostility toward India.
• India’s Strategic Concerns: Over the past 16 years, India and Bangladesh enjoyed close bilateral ties under Sheikh Hasina’s secular leadership. The resurgence of radicalism threatens regional stability and risks undoing these gains, endangering India’s national security.

India’s Response

• Global Advocacy: During India’s tenure as Permanent Representative to the UN in 2021-2022, it highlighted the rise of religiophobia against non-Abrahamic religions, including Hindus, Sikhs, and Buddhists.
• Addressing the Threats: India cannot afford to overlook the resurgence of Islamic extremism in Bangladesh. Strategic vigilance and proactive measures are crucial to countering these threats and maintaining regional stability, as India successfully did over the past 16 years.
• Engagement with the Interim Government: India has expressed its willingness to work with Bangladesh’s interim government to maintain and strengthen bilateral ties.
• Resolving Bilateral Relations:  Most major bilateral issues have been resolved over the past two decades, except for the Teesta River water-sharing agreement.
• Strong Support: India strongly supported Bangladesh’s newly elected government during the BDR revolt, playing a key role in preserving its democracy.

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Conclusion

It is in Bangladesh’s own interest that this military coup does not translate into an Islamic coup and goes the way of Syria or Afghanistan. The silver lining is that, having tasted the power of democracy in 2008, and now in 2024, it will be difficult to put the clock back.