Iran War and India’s Strategic Autonomy Challenges in a Multipolar World

Amid the Israeli-American attack on Iran and rising U.S. economic and geopolitical pressure, concerns are growing over India’s ability to preserve its strategic autonomy despite recent defence and trade partnerships with Europe.

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The Iran Conflict and Pressure from the United States

• India is caught between its critical needs in Iran and the demands of the United States.
  • While the U.S. has pressured India to completely sever ties with Iran due to their ongoing conflict, India remains dependent on Iran for several reasons:
• Energy and Connectivity: India requires Iran for its energy needs and the Chabahar Port, which serves as a vital gateway to Central Asia and Afghanistan, effectively bypassing Pakistan.
• Geopolitics: Iran is a neighbour to Pakistan, making it a strategic partner for India in regional balancing.
• Direct Confrontation: A significant blow to India’s strategic standing occurred when a U.S. submarine attacked an Iranian ship that had just completed exercises in India and was returning home, showing a lack of regard for India’s role as a host.
• Specific U.S. Demands: The U.S. is actively demanding that India stop purchasing Russian oil, abandon the Chabahar Port, and refrain from adopting any alternative to the dollar within the BRICS framework.

Challenges to India’s Strategic Autonomy

• The “Camp” Mentality: While India historically avoided joining power blocs (such as during the Non-Aligned Movement), the current polarised world is pushing India toward a specific camp, specifically the U.S.-led Western camp.
• Defence and Technology Limitations: India has tried to diversify its defence sources, such as the deal for 114 Rafale jets from Dassault Aviation to reduce reliance on the U.S. and Russia. 
  • However, France refuses to share core technology such as source codes and algorithms, meaning India cannot yet produce these advanced jets domestically.
• Inequality with the EU: Despite signing a Free Trade Agreement with the European Union, the EU often fails to treat India as an equal partner, viewing it instead through the lens of a developing or Global South country.
• Unipolar vs. Multipolar World: India advocates for a multipolar world where power is distributed among various nations, but the U.S. continues to operate as if the world is unipolar, with itself as the dominant superpower.

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U.S. Reliability and the Taiwan Lesson

• U.S.-China Contradictions: While the U.S. urges allies such as Japan, Australia, and India to avoid deep engagement with China, it has simultaneously pursued direct economic deals with China to benefit American companies.
• Strategic Ambiguity: The situation in Taiwan serves as a warning. 
  • Despite previous signals of support, Taiwan fears that the U.S. may not be fully reliable following high-level U.S.-China engagements, reinforcing the need for self-reliance in security matters.

Way Forward

• Multi-alignment Doctrine: India should pursue a multi-alignment approach, engaging simultaneously with multiple power centres.
• Balancing China: India cannot sustain permanent confrontation with China solely on expectations of U.S. support. 
  • If the U.S. and China reach an agreement, India could be strategically exposed; therefore, maintaining border stability is important.
• Key Strategic Priorities: India must focus on geo-economic decoupling, strategic hedging, and technological sovereignty to reduce dependence on any single power bloc.

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Conclusion

The Iran conflict underscores that despite growing engagement with Europe, India cannot rely on European powers to safeguard its strategic autonomy in moments of major geopolitical crisis.

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