India’s Stakes in the Coming Arctic Rush

In March 2025, Russian ambassador Denis Alipov addressed a conference in New Delhi on ‘Uniting North and South for Sustainable Development in the Arctic’.

Significance of the Arctic Ocean

• Characteristics: The Arctic Ocean, smallest and shallowest among world oceans, is surrounded by Eurasia and North America.
• Outlets: It has two major outlets:
  • Atlantic Ocean via the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GI-UK) gap
  • Pacific Ocean via the Bering Strait (between Alaska and Siberia)
    • The Bering Strait is a narrow passage of water, 85 km (53 miles) wide at its narrowest point, separating Russia and Alaska and connecting the Arctic Ocean with the Bering Sea.
• Salinity Levels: Low salinity leads to extensive sea ice cover, which fluctuates seasonally, making navigation hazardous.
• Resource Wealth: Estimated to hold 25% of the world’s untapped oil and gas reserves. Rich in rare earth minerals, metals, and abundant fish stocks.
• Scientific Estimates: As per US Geological Survey (USGS) Arctic has 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
• Strategic and Economic Potential: Offers massive economic opportunities for early movers. The Arctic remains one of the least exploited yet resource-rich regions of the world.

Emerging Strategic Routes

• Traditional Route: The traditional Suez Canal route remains the widely used maritime route for trade between Europe and Asia.
• North-West Passage (NWP): It passes through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Offers a direct route between the Atlantic and Pacific via northern Canada. Canada claims it as internal waters, while others argue for international passage rights.
• Northern Sea Route (NSR): It runs along Russia’s Siberian coast, from the Barents Sea to the Bering Strait. This is backed by Russian infrastructure and policies
• Navigability: Climate change has led to seasonal melting of Arctic sea ice, increasing navigability. Despite this, ice-breakers remain essential in many segments. Russia, China, and others are investing heavily in polar-class ships and logistical support.
• Comparison: Northern Sea Route (NSR) is significantly shorter in distance and time than the Suez Canal route for journeys between Europe and Asia.
  • The NSR is approximately 12,800 km, while the Suez Canal route is about 21,000 km. 
  • This results in a time savings of about 10-15 days, with the NSR reducing a one-month journey to less than two weeks.

Advantages of New Arctic Sea Routes

• Circumventing Bottlenecks: The adoption of new Arctic routing by merchant ships would obviate transit through the Suez and Panama Canal bottlenecks.
• Reduced Distances and Costs: This would cut down distances between Europe, the west coast of America, Asia, and the Far East by as much as 5,000-6,000 km or 15-20 days sailing, thereby slashing shipping costs.

Geopolitical Competition in the Arctic

• Russia: In 2007, Russia planted a titanium flag on the North Pole seabed using a submersible at 13,000 ft depth. It claims continental shelf rights and exploits hydrocarbons and mineral resources. Marks a symbolic assertion of territorial and strategic interests.
  • Huge Coastline: Russia has the largest coastline in the Arctic Ocean, encompassing over 53% of the total coastline.
    • This vast coastline, spanning approximately 24,150 kilometers, significantly contributes to Russia’s Arctic territory and its strategic importance
• China: It labels itself a “Near-Arctic State” and holds observer status in the Arctic Council.
  • Focus of China: Natural resources exploration, launching a Polar Silk Route and building ice-breakers for commercial Arctic navigation
• Western Concerns: These assertive actions by Russia and the expanding influence of China have alarmed Western nations. There are growing fears of militarisation in the Arctic, suggesting a potential shift towards increased military presence and strategic competition in the region.

Evolving Strategic Significance

• Cold War Importance: Historically, polar waters were primarily for scientific expeditions. The advent of ballistic-missile nuclear submarines (SSBNs) during the Cold War invested the Arctic with strategic significance.
• Short Flight time: Inter-continental missiles launched from the Arctic would have the shortest flight time to the continental US and the Russian heartland.
• Naval bastions: Soviets established naval bastions for SSBNs, continuously surveilled by NATO forces.
• Current Geopolitical Competition: Now, the focus has shifted to the exploitation of natural resources, leading to widespread international competition.

India’s Commitment to Polar Research

• Scientific Engagement: Despite the polar regions not being prominent in popular imagination, India’s scientific community, with full political support, has been engaged in polar research since 1981.
• National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR): The Goa-based NCPOR is responsible for implementing India’s policy for polar studies, reflecting its commitment to understanding atmospheric science, the climate crisis, glaciology, and polar biology.
• Research Stations:
  • Antarctica: India established its first research base, Dakshin Gangotri, in 1983-84, followed by Maitri and Bharati.
  • Arctic: India’s scientific endeavors in the Arctic began in 2008 with the establishment of Himadri in Ny-Alesund, Norway’s Svalbard archipelago.
• Observer Status in Arctic Council: India subsequently became an observer in the Arctic Council, an inter-governmental body comprising the five ‘Arctic nations’ (Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, US) and neighboring Sweden, Finland, and Iceland.

India’s Strategic Benefits from the Northern Sea Route (NSR)

• Enhanced Energy Security: The opening of the NSR would bolster India’s energy security.
• Reinforced Strategic Autonomy: It would also reinforce India’s strategic autonomy by:
  • Countering China’s influence on one hand.
  • Strengthening ties with Russia through Arctic cooperation on the other.

Way Forward for India

• Policy Implementation: There is a critical need for stronger Arctic Policy implementation.
• Technological Investment: India should invest in ice-breaker technology and Arctic shipping capabilities.
• Maritime Doctrine Update: It is essential to upgrade India’s Maritime Doctrine to explicitly include the Arctic.
• Alliance Building: India must focus on building scientific, energy, and trade alliances in the Arctic region.
• Active Participation: India needs to raise its voice effectively in the Arctic Council and other global forums concerning Arctic affairs.

Conclusion

India’s Arctic engagement must balance strategic partnerships, commercial ambitions, and environmental responsibilities. A neutral yet proactive approach with both Western and Russian blocs is essential.